Tuesday: Week 1 Analysis and Fantasy Implications
Its been a long day of offering many, many trades and keeping an eye for dropped gold. After the first week you get a lot of emotional and reactionary owners dropping prime time players because they didn’t have a spectacular first game. On the flip side, the people act like the big performance put on by the players with the top stats this week will have numbers like that every week. We’re going to go game by game and look at how the players involved could be over or undervalued by these folks.
Unless you are in a league with your buddies where you know their playing style and trading styles you should be making as many offers as feasible around your league. For instance, I have Mark Clayton (WR Bal) on one of my teams. He had decent number because of a reverse where he ran for 42 yards and scored. Without that he had 3 catches for 21 yards. He is not going to score on a reverse every week and with a rookie QB I think he will have lots of 3 for 21 weeks. I am offering him to everyone I can. Obviously I’m not going to get a TO but I can maybe get a Minnesota Vikings defense or he can be bundled into a four player trade (2 for 2).
Remember, the worst they can do is say no.
Also, keep your eyes open on the waiver wire. People see one bad week and drop a guy who just needs a few weeks to get going.
Thursday Night Game
Giants 16
Redskins 7
There were no big surprises from a fantasy perspective here as the big time players performed withing their expected ranges. One area of surprise was at the tight end position on both teams. Cooley (TE Was) getting 1 catch for 7 yards had better be an aberration or Bush won’t be the only lame duck in DC. On the other side of the coin, with the departure of Jeremy Shockey (TE NO) left an opening for Kevin Boss (TE NYG) who stepped in an recorded a goose egg. I may be acting like one of those reactionaries I mention above but their are too many middle of the pack tight end available to wait for this guy to record a catch. There, he should thank me as I have just guaranteed him a 10 for 130 yard day and 2 TDs.
FFIWOT: Make a low ball offer for Cooley
Sunday Games
Lions 21
Falcons 34
Wow. The Falcons have two big backs and a Rookie who showed some poise in week one. I’m not rushing out to sign the Atlanta WR corp though because he is a rookie and will have some bad days. Look for defenses to key on the run and force Ryan (QB Atl) to try and beat them. I’m holding on to Turner even though I know this was probably his best game of the season. If I were going to trade him, this would be the week.
FFIWOT: Trade Michael Jenkins (WR Atl) while the stock is fairly high.
Chiefs 10
Patriots 17
KC’s folks performed as expected. Obviously with Brady (QB NE) out for the year it totally changes the complexion of the Patriots. R Moss (WR NE) will still get his to a lesser degree but still good. Look for this to become an offensively conservative team that relies on defense.
FFIWOT: Trade W Welker (WR NE) ASAP while last years numbers still sway some influence. Get Maroney (RB NE) or Morris (RB NE) if you can.
Seahawks 10
Bills 34
Wow again. I didn’t watch this game so I’m not sure if the Bills improved that much or Seattle, always the schizophrenic, just played bad.
FFIWOT: Keep an eye on these teams for now
Bengals 10
Ravens 17
Speaking of schizophrenic teams… The Ravens have their usual good D.
FFIWOT: Sell now any Ravens you have. Buy now any Bengals you can get for a bargain
Texans 17
Steelers 38
I guess Willie Parker (RB Pit) is not ready to give up the running back spotlight just yet.
FFIWOT: If you have space on your bench and you are patient and the force is strong in you then pick up R Mendenhall (RB Pit) dirt cheap and wait for mid season dividends.
Jaguars 10
Titans 17
Chris Johnson (RB Ten) looks like the real deal. The Jags are in a real bind. They were thin on the O line and then managed to loose their two starting Guards for the year. They just signed a guard a few hours ago but they are going to be struggling for a while as their offense sputtered on Sunday
Get what you can for L White (RB Ten) now while you can. If you have Jag skill players your choice is to be patient for a few (or several) weeks while they patch together a line and get them working well together. Meanwhile the production of the offense will be down.
FFIWOT: Consider dropping (trade if you can) Fred Taylor (RB Jac). Don’t go rushing to pick up Matt Jones (WR Jac) as he will surely disappoint as he always does. Bench Garrard (QB Jac) and Jones-Drew (RB Jac) as they will be productive by mid season or before. If you have a spot on your bench, pick up Jones-Drew.
Rams 3
Eagles 38
What happens when team A has their best game of the year the same week team B has their worst. See boxscore. The Eagles are a good team and the Rams a bad one but the one is not that good and the other is not that bad
FFIWOT: Don’t go picking up Eagles because of one game. You should be selling Eagles and buying Rams
Cowboys 28
Browns 10
The Cowboys looked pretty damn good. Look for Cleveland to rebound and be better than this.
FFIWOT: Pick up Browns when you can get them cheap. I’m not sure many people are giving up on Braylon Edwards (WR Cle) just yet but you never know.
Jets 20
Dolphins 14
Ok, Favre won his first one out of the gate. I love Bret but sell him if you got him and have another good QB. They beat the Dolphins for god sake, not the Giants.
FFIWOT: Sell Favre. Pick up L Coles (WR NYJ) really cheap.
Buccaneers 20
Saints 24
No Fantasy surprises here from the guys who played
FFIWOT: Deuce McAllister rode the pine and is available in seemingly every league in the world. This guy is worth a spot on your bench. He had a great preseason and has a solid track record. Pick him up and wait.
Panthers 26
Chargers 24
Exciting game!
FFIWOT: Pick up J Stewart (RB Car) if he is available and if you need a tight end, make a waiver claim for D Rosario (TE Car)
Bears 29
Colts 13
Peyton looked a little sluggish. M Forte (RB Chi) looked great.
FFIWOT: If K Jones (RB Chi) is available and you have a bench spot, he could make a decent bye week fill in depending on who the Bears are playing.
Monday Night Games
Vikings 19
Packers 24
Another good game. Begin the A Rodgers Era. T Jackson (QB Min) still looks like a rookie to me and that hurts his receiving squad too. Stay away from them.
FFIWOT: Sell Rodgers (QB GB) now while his stock is miles high. I see only one place he can go from here. Wait for B Berrian to have a decent game and pawn him off for what you can get.
Broncos 41
Raiders 14
An old friend of mine who I haven’t talked to in years is a lifelong Raider fan and I just felt sad for him on Monday.I have heard of running back by committee referring to 2 backs sharing the load. Denver has running back by the entire damn Congress. One primary will surely emerge.
FFIWOT: Sell E Royal (WR Den). He is obviously a very good player but his numbers have to come down when B Marshall (WR Den) returns. If you have a spot, try and get A Hall (RB Den) in case he emerges to the top of the Denver RB heap.
-Chris
Tags: A Hall, A Rodgers, Analysis, B Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chris Johnson, Cooley, D Rosario, Deuce McAllister, E Royal, Favre, Fred Taylor, Garrard, J Stewart, Jeremy Shockey, Jones-Drew, K Jones, Kevin Boss, L White, Mark Clayton, Maroney, Michael Jenkins, R Mendenhall, R Moss, T Jackson, trades, Tuesday, W Welker, Willie Parker
