Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

The first three weeks are past us now and we have uncovered some sleepers like Aaron Rogers (QB GB) and complained about some superstuds putting up superdud numbers like Derek Anderson (QB Cle). He have seen Tom Brady (QB NE) go down and we have sung Kombayah until we can sing no more.

Week 4 is where we start to separate the men from the boys, the wheat from the chaff, the goats from thee sheep, the notes from the noise, the rice from the hulls, the peanuts from the butter, the pretenders from the contenders and where the FFIWOT strategy starts to kick in full throttle.

Suddenly, this morning, millions of fantasy football players logged in to see where they sit in their league. To the horror of many as they pulled up their roster and they suddenly discovered that 2 of their running backs have a bye next week and the third is injured! [insert scream here]

This is where our preparedness pays dividends. The guy who wouldn’t have traded his Kyle Orton (QB Chi) for your Peyton Manning (QB Ind) just a week ago will suddenly jump and an opportunity to get a Jason Campbell (QB Was).

FFIWOT Rule: During Bye weeks only offer trades that both solve the other players dilemma while upgrading your roster just enough to not send up warning flags.

If you have decent receivers on your bench and there are people with empty wide receiver slots because of byes and injury then for god sake don’t just sit there make an offer. People will trade the like of Ryan Grant (RB GB) for the like of a L Coles (WR NYJ) coming off his first and only touchdown. Now in week 12, when the Packers are looking toward the playoffs and the Jets are are scratching their heads wondering why in thee world they brought a 72 year old QB into a new system on a new team and expected miracles to happen, which of the aforementioned player do you think will be more valuable? This assumes you have a Wide Receiver to spare to make the trade to begin with…

Remember, even if this guy is desperate you still have to get this trade past the rest of the league. The goal is to be the problems solver for other players and in return for this community service you charge a small player upgrade fee. These upgrades compound during the bye weeks until you come out the other side a much more fordable team.

FFIWOT Rule: During bye weeks, offer at least one trade option for every problem you can solve and when possible, offer several versions and let them pick.

Throw as much spaghetti at the wall as you can and some will certainly stick.

FFIWOT Rule: Be willing to trade or add a player that will win you games down the road even if you have to leave a slot empty and loose a game early in the year.

Example: For a guy needing a to fill a running back slot, a Pierre Thomas (RB NO) is a life saver and worth the M Colston taking up space on his bench. He’s worried about right now and you’ll be thinking about the second half of the season when suddenly you find you have a healthy top shelf wide receiver and he has a guy averaging 22 yards per game and occasionally stealing a goalline touchdown.

FFIWOT Rule: Every year they say that the running back position is no long the most important because of early season apparent shortages at wide receive and/or quarterback. Every year it is the player who stocked up on running back talent who has a better team at the end of the year.

Pick up the young guys like the J Stewarts (RB Car) and the Steve Slatons (RB Hou) and take chances on guys like R Mendenhall getting his first start this weekend.

FFIWOT Rule: Every other year they talk about the emergence of the Running Back By Committee and they sing the death knell of the primary back and every year the majority of the RBBCs see a dominant back emerge. Backing the right guy early can be the difference down the road.

The two headed monster is not a myth. They exist but there just aint as many that last the whole year as it seem there will be in week 1. If I had to pick some good candidates from some of the RBBC teams out there I would look at S Young (RB Den), C Johnson (RB Ten), J Stewart (RB Car) and maybe L McClain (RB Bal). These are not locks but if you hedge your bets and pick wisely then toward playoff time you can have this year’s Ryan Grant (RB GB) or E Graham (RB TB) who both emerged from these kind of situation to be late season superstars.

-Chris

Tuesday…. This week is a trading week as there is not much on the waiver wire in most leagues. Below is a list of deals and steals to trade for, and a list of OVPs (overly valued players) to trade away while their perceived value is high. Lastly are the D&Rs (dump and run) which are people taking up valuable real estate on your bench.

Keep in mind that you will NOT see the biggest names in football below as they do not fit into the three categories. Most fit into the category: Players no one in their right mind will trade away.

Week 2

Sunday

Chicago 17
Carolina « 20

Deals: n/a

Steals: J Delhomme (QB Car) had a very K Orton (QB Chi) like day against the Bears D. He gets his top receiver back in S Smith (WR Car) next week. Make an offer for him if the owner has another decent QB on the roster.

OVPs: D Hester (WR Chi) Turns out catching the ball is a little different that returns. Wait for a decent week if you can then try to get something for him.

D&Rs: K Jones (RB Chi) was worth an early bench spot while waiting for things to unfold in the Chicago backfield but M Forte (RB Chi) looks for real and looks to be a solid starter. Only if he gets injured is Jones worth a look for now

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Tennessee « 24
Cincinnati 7

Deals: C Johnson (WR Cin) has a hurting shoulder. T Houshmandzadeh (WR Cin) and Ocho Cinco are both suffering from the horrendous play of the Cincinnati offense right now. It could be argued that they are in fact the problem there. My point here is if you have room on your bench, make some lowball offers to see what their owners may take. It won’t be like this forever in Cincy. C Perry could fall into this category too as he will get better over the course of the year as well.

Steals: C Palmer could be had for a song right now. I believe they have to improve and this guy is at least worth a bench spot and by the end of the season, who knows, maybe he’ll be your starter.

OVPs: L White (RB Ten) It looks like we will see a RBBC (running back by committee) with C Johnson (RB Ten) for a while but clearly Johnson will get the bulk of the load from here so get something fro White coming off a a TD while you can.

D&Rs: n/a..for now

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Green Bay « 48
Detroit 25

Deals: K Smith (RB Det) What I like is that this kid can catch so when Detroit is behind, which will be a good part of the season, he can still be involved. Look for him to have his best days still ahead

Steals: R Grant (RB GB) has had a horrible start but I would love to have him on my bench in a few weeks

OVPs: A Rogers (QB GB) Alright, I admit this guy truly is better than I thought and would be a good starter. I think though that his stock is so high right now that he will be hard pressed to play at the level of his current perceived value right now. I think you could make a favorable trade if you involved 4 or more players (ie Rogers and another player for a QB and another player)

D&Rs: R Johnson (RB Det) He is clearing on a team that is going to need to pass a lot so I just don’t see a lot of PT for him.

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Buffalo « 20
Jacksonville 16

Deals: n/a

Steals: M Jones-Drew (RB Jac) can be picked up for very little I would think. If not avoid him because he will eat a spot on the bench until Jacksonville can right their ship. If your RBs have late byes then he may make a great steal

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: I have been warning about Jacksonville and it isn’t going to get better soon as they have Indy and Pittsburgh in 2 of the next 3. I am staying away from that whole offense with one possible exception (see above)

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Oakland « 23
Kansas City 8

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: D McFadden (RB Oak) Play up the point that he will likely be the starter from here but lets face it, you can’t play KC every week and without a passing attack, well…

D&Rs: If you have any QB that was associated with this game, for god sake man, get them the hell off your team!

_____________________________

Indianapolis « 18
Minnesota 15

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: Its hard to believe but I think M Harrison (WR Ind) has fallen into this bunch. He will still have days but I think he is too inconsistent to be a viable as a fill in you can count on. B Berrian falls into this category as well. What a bust he has been so far with 3 catches for 38 yards in both games combined.

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NY Giants « 41
St. Louis 13

Deals:

Steals: You can probably get any skill player on St Louis pretty easily but its a gamble. Clearly M Bulger (QB StL), T Holt (WR StL) and S Jackson (RB StL) will have some big numbers here and there the question is where and when

OVPs:

D&Rs: S Smith (WR NYG) Smith has clearly not upped his game since the Superbowl heroics. R McMichael (TE StL) has disappointed after some quality years in Miami.

_____________________________

New Orleans 24
Washington « 29

Deals:

Steals: D McAllister (RB NO) and/or P Thomas (RB NO) the tough part is determining which one of these guys is the steal. R Bush (RB NO) is clearly not built to be a one man show. My money has been on Deuce but he got his first 2 carries of the year in this game. Even though he got 5 yards a pop it seems for some reason that they are going to ease him in very slowly. Time will tell

OVPs: I’m not sure if the west coast offense suddenly clicked or what but I would shop J Campbell (QB Was) just to see if there are any takers with a good offer.

D&Rs:

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San Francisco « 33
Seattle 30

Deals: I can’t figure either of these teams out. I would say grab F Gore (RB SF) if you can get a deal on him but as far as anybody else on either roster goes I would wait another week and see what bizarre turns it brings

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Atlanta 9
Tampa Bay « 24

Deals: J Galloway (WR TB) may be acquired on the cheap. The issue is that he is a deep threat and Tampa can’t find a QB who throw deeper than  20 yards. Where is Doug Williams when you need him?

Steals:

OVPs: You missed your chance with M Turner (RB Atl) last week. You could have traded him for the world. The good news is even though you have to keep him for another week, you have a solid back that you should be happy to hold on to. You’re just not going to get 200 yards every week

D&Rs: M Ryan (QB Atl) Rookie QBs are trouble

_____________________________

Miami 10
Arizona « 31

Deals: K Warner (QB Ari) was a deal but the cat is out of the bag and the Cardinals have been playing good on both sides of the ball. Of course they have knocked off two juggernauts in San Fran and Miami. Their next 2 are Washington and the Jets. Can you say 4-0 in the desert?

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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San Diego 38
Denver « 39

Deals: S Young (RB Den) will end up being the 1000 yard back in Denver, he’ll just need to earn the right for a while.

Steals:

OVPs: C Chambers (WR Mia) I have to be honest, I’m not a fan. This guy seems to have all kinds of potential but has only had one 1000 yard season back in 2005. He seems to put together some big games surrounded by a lot of very mediocre ones. If you are a great guesser as to which week is the next one he is a great receiver to have otherwise he will float a goose egg in the week you needed just 3 more points to win.

D&Rs:

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New England « 19
NY Jets 10

Deals: R Moss (WR NE) You may actually be able to strike a deal for ol’ Randy. Give it time and he and M Cassel (QB NE) will build some chemistry.

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Pittsburgh « 10
Cleveland 6

Deals: B Edwards (WR Cle) and D Anderson (QB Cle) can both probably be negotiated for at this point. Both will turn it around in the weeks to come

Steals: R Mendenhall (RB Pit) can be had cheap and maybe even off the waiver wire. You are going to have to wait 4 or 5 games but it will pay off as they can’t run W Parker (RB Pit) near thirty times a game and have him last.

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Monday

Philadelphia 37
Dallas « 41

Deals: Good luck finding a deal here and these guys on either team don’t look overrated.

Steals: Some potential steals are K Curtis (WR Phi) and R Brown (WR Phi). The Philadelphia air attack has done well without them and I believe both will have plenty of opportunity for big numbers once they get healthy

OVPs:

D&Rs:

_____________________________

Postponed due to Hurricane Ike

Baltimore
Houston

Deals: Its hard to gleam much wisdom when we have only seen each team play once. We can tell by the second week performance of their opponents that Houston played a pretty good defense and Baltimore played a team with some serious troubles. Because of the last second nature of the announcement some people had to make some hasty moves so you may get a waiver claim for some guys like an O Daniels (TE Hou), S Slaton (RB Hou) or if you really need a WR, K Walter (WR Hou).

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

Good luck in your trades.

-Chris

The FFIWOT strategy is not a rigid one. In some years this would be a week to pick up steals and deals while in other years, like this one, this is a trading week. There just isn’t much out there in the Free Agent market right now that wasn’t identified after week one.

Week 2 just didn’t put the shine on any diamonds half buried in the field and there were no major injuries of note. The exceptions may be L. Tomlinson (RB SD) with a toe ding and J Fargas (RB Oak) with a groin injury. In the former you can expect some sporadic short term opportunities from D Sproles (RB SD) and a new starting position for D McFadden (RB Oak).

The trading strategy is focused on two areas this week. One is bye week maneuvers and the other is looking for deals and steals. The latter is the harder of the 2 because you will need a big dose of patience and room on your bench to wait on the bargain bin picks to blossom. While patience is a virtue we can all acquire, with the bye week stretch coming up, make sure you have a strategy for bye week rotation.

We will feature the deals and steal trade opportunities in a later post analyzing the week 2 games. For now, lets look at our Chinese writing for some eastern advice on our western game. The favorite Chinese character of politicians is the one for crisis which they tell us is a combination of of the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. Its probably some BS (an abbreviation of English term for a male cow with the slang term for excrement) but the bye week danger/opportunity is not so lets plan.

Bye week analysis Step One:

I love the leagues that give you the small touches that make life easier like having the bye week of each player listed right there on your roster page. Fickle is as fickle does. I love the leagues that don’t have the small touches like the bye week listed on the roster page because if you are willing to put in a little work, you will have a strategic edge over the majority of the league who will not.

Either way, print out your roster and make sure the bye week is listed next to each player. Below is a list of bye weeks for your convenience

2008 NFL Bye Week Schedule (Revised for Hurricane reshuffling)

Week 2 Houston, Baltimore
Week 4 Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, Seattle
Week 5 Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis
Week 6 Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
Week 7 Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Week 8 Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota
Week 9 Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco
Week 10 Baltimore, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

[Original bye dates struck through]

Bye week analysis Step Two:

Go week by week and see who has a bye and who from your bench, you will use to fill in for them. Next, go see what team your fill in will be playing that week. For instance, in week 7 you want to plug in C Perry (RB Cin)  for your starters you would want to rethink that plan when you saw he will be up against the Steeler D. Make a list of your weak spots and the positions you have an abundance of players at.

Bye week analysis Step Three:

Look for trades for comparable players for the problem areas on your bench. IE C Perry above would be such a problem. Ideally you would want to trade them coming off a good week so their stock is high. Remember what their value to you is right now. C Perry is your starter in week 7 against the tough Pittsburgh defense and probably good for 45 yards rushing and no TDs.

Look at the match ups for week seven and find an RB who can do better than that (adjust for the match up). The worst teams against the run right now are the Bengals, Chiefs and Lions.

Bye week analysis step Four:

Repeat a similar analysis for ONLY week 4 for each of the other teams in your league. Find the teams that are going to have to plug in a real dud or better yet, will not have a starter somewhere due to byes in week 4. Now if you find such a team with a need in an area where you have an abundance, then a trade can certainly be offered. Be sure to point out their upcoming weakness as they will probably have not worked that out yet.

If you can identify a problem and offer a solution that is mutually beneficial you can make it easy for them to say yes to a trade that they may otherwise be a little skeptical of.

For for our steals and deals trade analysis later on FFIWOT

-Chris

Its been a long day of offering many, many trades and keeping an eye for dropped gold. After the first week you get a lot of emotional and reactionary owners dropping prime time players because they didn’t have a spectacular first game. On the flip side, the people act like the big performance put on by the players with the top stats this week will have numbers like that every week. We’re going to go game by game and look at how the players involved could be over or undervalued by these folks.

Unless you are in a league with your buddies where you know their playing style and trading styles you should be making as many offers as feasible around your league. For instance, I have Mark Clayton (WR Bal) on one of my teams. He had decent number because of a reverse where he ran for 42 yards and scored. Without that he had 3 catches for 21 yards. He is not going to score on a reverse every week and with a rookie QB I think he will have lots of 3 for 21 weeks. I am offering him to everyone I can. Obviously I’m not going to get a TO but I can maybe get a Minnesota Vikings defense or he can be bundled into a four player trade (2 for 2).

Remember, the worst they can do is say no.

Also, keep your eyes open on the waiver wire. People see one bad week and drop a guy who just needs a few weeks to get going.

Thursday Night Game

Giants        16
Redskins    7

There were no big surprises from a fantasy perspective here as the big time players performed withing their expected ranges. One area of surprise was at the tight end position on both teams. Cooley (TE Was) getting 1 catch for 7 yards had better be an aberration or Bush won’t be the only lame duck in DC.  On the other side of the coin, with the departure of Jeremy Shockey (TE NO) left an opening for Kevin Boss (TE NYG) who stepped in an recorded a goose egg. I may be acting like one of those reactionaries I mention above but their are too many middle of the pack tight end available to wait for this guy to record a catch. There, he should thank me as I have just guaranteed him a 10 for 130 yard day and 2 TDs.

FFIWOT: Make a low ball offer for Cooley

Sunday Games

Lions            21
Falcons        34

Wow. The Falcons have two big backs and a Rookie who showed some poise in week one. I’m not rushing out to sign the Atlanta WR corp though because he is a rookie and will have some bad days. Look for defenses to key on the run and force Ryan (QB Atl) to try and beat them. I’m holding on to Turner even though I know this was probably his best game of the season. If I were going to trade him, this would be the week.

FFIWOT: Trade Michael Jenkins (WR Atl) while the stock is fairly high.

Chiefs        10
Patriots      17

KC’s folks performed as expected. Obviously with Brady (QB NE) out for the year it totally changes the complexion of the Patriots. R Moss (WR NE) will still get his to a lesser degree but still good. Look for this to become an offensively conservative team that relies on defense.

FFIWOT: Trade W Welker (WR NE) ASAP while last years numbers still sway some influence. Get Maroney (RB NE) or Morris (RB NE) if you can.
Seahawks     10
Bills              34

Wow again. I didn’t watch this game so I’m not sure if the Bills improved that much or Seattle, always the schizophrenic, just played bad.

FFIWOT: Keep an eye on these teams for now
Bengals         10
Ravens          17

Speaking of schizophrenic teams… The Ravens have their usual good D.

FFIWOT: Sell now any Ravens you have. Buy now any Bengals you can get for a bargain

Texans         17
Steelers        38

I guess Willie Parker (RB Pit) is not ready to give up the running back spotlight just yet.

FFIWOT: If you have space on your bench and you are patient and the force is strong in you then pick up R Mendenhall (RB Pit) dirt cheap and wait for mid season dividends.
Jaguars       10
Titans         17

Chris Johnson (RB Ten) looks like the real deal. The Jags are in a real bind. They were thin on the O line and then managed to loose their two starting Guards for the year. They just signed a guard a few hours ago but they are going to be struggling for a while as their offense sputtered on Sunday

Get what you can for L White (RB Ten) now while you can. If you have Jag skill players your choice is to be patient for a few (or several) weeks while they patch together a line and get them working well together. Meanwhile the production of the offense will be down.

FFIWOT: Consider dropping (trade if you can) Fred Taylor (RB Jac). Don’t go rushing to pick up Matt Jones (WR Jac) as he will surely disappoint as he always does. Bench Garrard (QB Jac) and Jones-Drew (RB Jac) as they will be productive by mid season or before. If you have a spot on your bench, pick up Jones-Drew.
Rams            3
Eagles          38

What happens when team A has their best game of the year the same week team B has their worst. See boxscore. The Eagles are a good team and the Rams a bad one but the one is not that good and the other is not that bad

FFIWOT: Don’t go picking up Eagles because of one game. You should be selling Eagles and buying Rams
Cowboys       28
Browns          10

The Cowboys looked pretty damn good. Look for Cleveland to rebound and be better than this.

FFIWOT: Pick up Browns when you can get them cheap. I’m not sure many people are giving up on Braylon Edwards (WR Cle) just yet but you never know.
Jets              20
Dolphins     14

Ok, Favre won his first one out of the gate. I love Bret but sell him if you got him and have another good QB. They beat the Dolphins for god sake, not the Giants.

FFIWOT: Sell Favre. Pick up L Coles (WR NYJ) really cheap.
Buccaneers     20
Saints             24

No Fantasy surprises here from the guys who played

FFIWOT: Deuce McAllister rode the pine and is available in seemingly every league in the world. This guy is worth a spot on your bench. He had a great preseason and has a solid track record. Pick him up and wait.

Panthers      26
Chargers     24

Exciting game!

FFIWOT: Pick up J Stewart (RB Car) if he is available and if you need a tight end, make a waiver claim for D Rosario (TE Car)
Bears            29
Colts            13

Peyton looked a little sluggish. M Forte (RB Chi) looked great.

FFIWOT: If K Jones (RB Chi) is available and you have a bench spot, he could make a decent bye week fill in depending on who the Bears are playing.

Monday Night Games

Vikings        19
Packers        24

Another good game. Begin the A Rodgers Era. T Jackson (QB Min) still looks like a rookie to me and that hurts his receiving squad too. Stay away from them.

FFIWOT: Sell Rodgers (QB GB) now while his stock is miles high. I see only one place he can go from here. Wait for B Berrian to have a decent game and pawn him off for what you can get.
Broncos      41
Raiders       14

An old friend of mine who I haven’t talked to in years is a lifelong Raider fan and I just felt sad for him on Monday.I have heard of running back by committee referring to 2 backs sharing the load. Denver has running back by the entire damn Congress. One primary will surely emerge.

FFIWOT: Sell E Royal (WR Den). He is obviously a very good player but his numbers have to come down when B Marshall (WR Den) returns. If you have a spot, try and get A Hall (RB Den) in case he emerges to the top of the Denver RB heap.

-Chris

Wow, isn’t it funny how we are always surprised after week one by the wins and losses and how little it usually means in the big picture. The big news of course is Tom Brady (QB NE) out for the year. We’ll go game by game and analyze the fantasy impact and plug it into our strategy in out next post after we review our strategic goals at this point of the season. A good segue….

FFIWOT Strategy after week one:

Look at the big picture, keep realistic expectations and gamble based on some basic principals. Here are a couple rules that are relevant for this week.

FFIWOT Rules: Man your positions with as few players as needed except for Running Backs.

You need to learn to live with one Tight End, one defense (for this time of year), one kicker and two quarterbacks tops. If your number two and three guys at these positions are just so good you can’t drop them, then trade them. But maybe you point out that you will have no one if you top player get hurt or your defense starts stinking. FFIWOT may not be right for you unless you can get past this way of thinking.

If you have one of the elite tight ends then he is your starter and you ride his play for the year. Why have another pretty good guy to second guess yourself with, or worse, a sub par Tight end on your bench eating a roster spot. Beyond the elite top there is a deep pool of bland, “3 catches for 29 yard and 1 touchdown every 8 games” tight ends to go around. If your star gets hurt you will have to play tight end by weekly match up based on the free agents available.

Same strategy applies to kickers, quarterbacks (beyond 2 on the roster), and your defense (for this part of the season). The thing about defenses is they gel as the year goes by so I’m telling you there are some good defenses in the FA pool right now. Sometimes defenses, light on talent, benefit from their offense. Lets say Atlanta becomes a ball control and time of possession powerhouse which is not unrealistic given their running attack. Atlanta’s defense becomes a lot better just by virtue of not having to be on the field as much. The opposite could be said of Jacksonville and their offensive line problems. If they become a three and out team then that will put a lot of pressure on their defense.

Pick up as many Running Backs as you can without compromising wins by thinning out another position. You want an RB farm team of sorts so you can gamble on to three guys with the hopes (expectations really) that at least one becomes a fantasy stud. There is a good chance the other two will do nothing but when its time to move on (and not a week before then) we can dump that player and pick up our next prospect. Even if you are already set at running back when your farm stars arise, you will be prepared if one of your starters goes down to injury, as often they do. If you are lucky enough to have healthy running backs at the end of the year AND a rising star, then you will have a powerful and rare trading commodity to upgrade one of your other positions for the playoffs.

Our focus for the year is on the pool of Running Back and who may be a star four or five weeks from now. Examples of this right now would be Jonathan Stewart (RB Car) who will get more touches as the year goes on and may be found on waivers after an ok (fantasy-wise) 53 yard start.

We are looking for:

• Replacements to injured starters
• Young players who should work their way into the line ups
• Your favorite candidates of two horse races for the office of starting running back
• The back ups of injury prone players who are healthy for now

I know you are thinking, ” Yea that sounds good but everyone will be picking up these players”. You would think but it just ain’t so. Most of your opponents are undisciplined, impatient and overstaffed at the wrong positions. To be successful at this you have to have available roster spots for players who are unstartable for what could be several weeks. You must operate thin and be aware of your bye weeks.

FFIWOT Rule: For adds and drops we speculate on future value even at the cost of a short term win

Many Fantasy Football coaches loose sight of the goal which is to win the championship. Its nice to have an undefeated regular season but if your don’t win in the playoffs then so what. Sometimes you need to sacrifice a week so you can win several more weeks in the future.

FFIWOT Rule: Know your league rules!

Most leagues have pretty friendly rules for playoff entry where basically almost everyone is in and record just determines your spot in the bracket and thus who you play. In other leagues its the top four teams only, where a loss now could cost you a berth later.

FFIWOT Rule: With trades, Buy low and Sell High

We didn’t invent this saying but we live by it as a rule. You have to be willing to make some bad calls and live with them. You have to be patient and most importantly unemotional.

How can you possibly trade Willing Parker (RB PIT) right now when he is on a pace to to run for 2208 yard and 48 rushing touchdowns! That’s what your emotional self says. Your logical self says because he will do neither is why you would consider trading him right now while his stock is at it’s peak. You look at the fact that while Parker will no doubt have a good year, his carries will eventually decrease as Rashard Mendenhall’s (RB PIT) go up. Sure he had a subpar outing in the same game Parker blew it up but maybe Jacksonville is better suited to stop his style of running. Maybe it’s a bad idea to trade Parker, depends on you specific circumstance. The point is, if you were even going to entertain the thought, right now, today is the time to do it.

Today you should be printing out your league rosters and making trade offers like mad in search of the deals and steals that emotional, reactionary fellow coaches present.

Look for our game by game analysis with fantasy impact, later today

-Chris

HEAD COACHES

There wasn’t a lot of head coaching moves this year and the new kids in town are all on teams that don’t really look like they will make much of an impact this year. Teams with new head coaches include:

• Atlanta : Mike Smith
• Baltimore: John Harbaugh
• Miami: Tony Sparano
• Jim Zorn

I don’t see any of these coaches being able to right any of these ships for a playoff run this year. It’s also hard to see how the fantasy stars will be impacted by these new coaches with their offensive philosophies. Zorn bringing the west coast offense to Washington seems to have the biggest potential on paper but I’m not sold on Jason Campbell (QB Was).

QUARTERBACKS

Both Atlanta and Baltimore have traded off their veterans and journeymen to commit to rookies. Matt Ryan get the start for the Falcons and Joe Flacco in Baltimore. In San Francisco, they have brought in journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan who is has warmed benches in cities all over the league. My advice: Stay away from them all and be weary of their receivers.

Its not so much a move involving him that brings Aaron Rogers to the limelight in Green Bay but Brett Favre’s brief retirement and then move to the Jets. I’ve seen a lot of hype around this guy but I’m treating him like any other first year starting QB and staying the hell away. Yes, I may eat those words later but I look for a roller coaster year for him and that’s not what I want from my fantasy QB.

Speaking of Favre, with him leading the Jets, who knows what will happen in the big apple. I have learned the hard way not to bet against Favre but my gut says look for more pics than TD’s and more L’s than W’s. What I do see is a lot of fantasy potential for the New York wide receivers. Look for Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles to put up some of the best numbers of their careers.

Chad Pennington was part of a big QB shuffle in Miami and landed the starting job. Could this be his big chance to revive his career? I don’t think so. Look for him to be injured by mid season and then Josh McCown coming in to lead the Dolphins to yet another disappointing season.

I usually don’t talk about backup much but some interesting moves leave some potentially viable fantasy stars one knee injury away from starterdom including David Carr In New York (Giants that is), Mark Brunell in New Orleans and Trent Green in St. Louis. Green would be my pick for most likely to step up and put up numbers if given the chance.

Thats it for QB’s and Coaches

-Chris

For those who follow this blog you know FFIWOT (click here for WTF is FFIWOT) does not put a lot of stock in the preseason. Who cares what what star players do for one quarter against a bunch of third stringers looking to make the team or guys who know they have made the team and just don’t want to get hurt.

In fact, FFIWOT doesn’t even follow the preseason. What’s the point? It’s a distraction. Better to study what happened in the offseason (coming in a later post). The preseason is filled with hype and BS. While yes, the preseason can give valuable insights it more often offers up false hopes and misleading data. The preseason is a time for trades based on the hype. We’ll talk about that in a later post.

The preseason is also filled with rookie hype. Good lord, can we ever hear enough rookie hype from these guys who worship at the alter of college football? FFIWOT does not follow the JV. Again, why bother? Despite the fact that over the past 25 years you can count on one hand the number of rookie QBs who have come in and put up big numbers in their first year, we hears what seems like millions of hours spent debating the merits of each year’s new crops.

From a fantasy perspective, who the hell cares! FFIWOT Rule: Never keep a rookie QB on your roster. Sorry Mr. Flacco (QB Bal) and Mr. Ryan (QB Atl) but you will not even ride the pine on my team. For that matter, another FFIWOT Rule: Never keep a first year starting QB on your roster. Sorry Mr. J.T. O’Sullivan (QB SF). Let the fool coaches on the other teams in your fantasy league try and find the next Peyton Manning (QB Ind) or Dan Marino (QB Mia ret.) because for every one of them there are 25 Cade McNown’s (QB Chi). Look at Trent Edwards (QB Buf), who had a very respectable rookie season for a QB but I still wouldn’t have wanted him as my starting Fantasy QB or even my bye week QB. I will keep an eye on him this year but I not ready to commit if you know what I mean.

As far as rookies go, running back is usually the only position where an impact can be made by a rookie (Adrian Petersen, Min) with any degree of predictability and even then it’s rare to have a guy who you know has the talent and is on a team with blocking and where they will be the featured back.This year it looks like a couple prospects to watch include Matt Forte (RB Chi), Rashard Mendenhall (RB Pit), Jonathan Stewart (RB Car), and Kevin Smith (RB Det). My personal favorite is Mendenhall. I have always thought Willie Parker was not smashmouth enough for Pittsburgh but with a Bettis (RB Pit ret.) like north south back, a successful RBBC (Running Back By Committee) favoring Mendenhall. Look for box scores like this:

Parker 13 for 66 yds

Mendenhall 8 for 41 yds 1 TD

And Every third week or so count on Parker breaking a long one adding 45 yards and a TD to the above stats. You may ask where is Darren McFadden (RB Oak)? My answer would be, “He is in Oakland, that’s where he is”

You could argue that there are usually some rookie Wide Receivers that have good fantasy years but we could counter back that while that is true, it’s usually not the rookies that were predicted to do well during the preseason. Calvin Johnson (WR Det) would be an exception but for every Calvin Johnson there are several Charles Rogers (WR FA).

As for other positions, we’ll see. John Carlson (TE Sea) is getting the start in Seattle but even if he has a great rookie year that would probably place him in the mediocre middle of the pack of tight end where one is just as good as the other.

Finally a word about Drafts. We don’t offer ranking sheets and we don’t offer predictions. Personally I do auto-drafts and play with whatever the football gods decide to give me. FFIWOT is all about building on the team you have after the draft so look to one of the many other fantasy football sites for draft information but come back to us after the draft.

Good luck to all and lets get ready for some football!

-Chris

Welcome back! FFIWOT got a late start due to some technical issues but we hope to get caught up with a flurry of posts. We still have to do some technical tweaks over the weekend like upgrading our database but we hope this goes smoothly and everything will be good to go.
New look and feel for the site but the same strategy applied in detail to the coming season.

Please subscribe, bookmark, favorite, digg, and let us know what you think. We look forward to a fun and successful fantasy season.

-Chris