Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

Another exciting week of Football and now it’s time to plan for week 5.

From a FFIWOT strategic point of view this is a slow moving week. Lets face it, our strategy is to pick diamonds in the rough at running back and sell them later int he season when their stock is high and other players have few viable options.

Another strategy is to wade through bye weeks and key injuries and offer solutions to competitors in a challenging position. If this were real estate they would be motivated sellers selling off their prized assets at a discount because of market and personal conditions.

Looking at the former strategy, we have already had a lot of play on the up and comers of the league. Good luck trying to get Aaron Rogers (QB GB), Matt Forte (RB Chi), or a DeSean Jackson (WR Phi).

There aren’t a lot of surprises from here that we don’t at least have a suspicion about. Lets face it, the first couple weeks of the season is all about discovering new talent and we have all been discovering. Most of the emerging talent yet to be spotted are sitting on benches waiting for an injury to happen. We’ll be ready for that but not right now.

So we are going to take a different tack. Before we get into that, lets look at our second main strategy above of being the right guy with the right offer when some poor sap is hurting because he didn’t prepare for his bye week or a key injury hit and his bench is thin. There isn’t a lot of that happening this week.

Byes for week 5 include: Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis

That roughly translates to B Favre (QB NYJ), J Cotchery (WR NYJ), L Coles (WR NYJ), and S Jackson (RB STL) as key players sitting the week out. Yes there are other names but if you own Cleveland players you probably have them on the bench this coming week any way until they can prove something.

The bottom line is that there are just not enough key players effected by the bye this week to motivate a lot of sellers out there unless they did a really bad job of preparing after a bizarre alignment of players came their way.

So at first glance it would appear that we are screwed this week. Not really. When they zig we zag. People in the leagues I’m in seem to be grabbing the best talent available based on 4 weeks of performance. That sounds like a good strategy on the surface but it is the last thing you should be doing and not just because everyone else is doing it.

FFIWOT Rule: Every week, do an analysis of your running backs and wide receivers. Find the week you will be at your thinnest which will undoubtedly be a bye week. Plug in your substitutes and then look at the remaining (if any) players at that position. They should be diamonds in the rough. If they are sub par players, be ready to drop them if they are good players you should be looking for opportunities to trade them every week.

What I’m seeing with people picking up the best talent available is people picking up players who they would never start unless there were major injuries on their team and even then they would start them reluctantly on a team destined to loose.

Example: If you have a league that starts 3 wide receivers and you never have more than 1 on a bye from here on in and you have 4 good receivers, why in the hell would you pick up Ike Hilliard (WR TB) as your 5th? That is a wasted bench position as he is not suddenly going to be a consistent top 20 receiver.

In all likelihood he would remain on your bench not good enough to trade or even to start in your bye week. If you claim you are hedging against two injuries or an injury plus a bye then you are playing to loose. It is better to loose that week you are afflicted with bad luck than to tie up a valuable bench spot with dead wood.

You are much better off betting on a long shot in this position. Find a guy on a bench behind a talented wide receiver who has a history of injury or who your crystal ball says is going down. Maybe its a rookie who you think will become this year’s Calvin Johnson (WR Det).

The point is, while everyone else is picking up the Ike Hilliard’s and Derek Mason (WR Bal) because he had a good week, you need to look for people with huge upside. That brings us to my next point.

If you have no more up and comers to scout and grab, then pick up some down and outers. If you have some Ike Hilliard types (sorry to pick on you Ike, I’m a old Giants fan who grew up in Tampa so I like Ike, he just works for my example) then you should be looking to make deals for some of the following people:

Wide Receiver:

Randy Moss (WR NE)

Braylon Edwards (WR Cle)

Andre Johnson (WR Hou)

If you get an impatient guy then Marques Colston (WR NO)

and if you are a really optimistic gambler Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson (WR Cin)

Running Back:

Ryan Grant (RB GB)

Laurence Maroney (RB NE)

Selvin Young (RB Den)

Sure, probably none of the guys above are going to give you an immediate return and most are not (yet) on the waiver wire but if they are, grab them. If not you could trade your Ike Hilliards for some of them at this point.

These are proven entities that are having a bad start. Even if they take until mid season to turn things around think about what you will have at crunch time by taking a gamble with a bench seat now

One final word.

FFIWOT Rule: Most leagues will let you sort all players by some stat like fantasy points scored YTD. Do this for kickers and make sure there isn’t a much better kicker than the one you have sitting as a free agent.

This is of the most neglected positions in fantasy football and one of the most unpredictable. Just because a guy was good last year and so you ended up with him in the draft based on this doesn’t mean he is good this year.

With kickers, it depends a lot on their offense as well as their range and accuracy. Shop around.

Repeat the above exercise with defenses. I just picked up Tampa Bay as a secondary defense in one of my leagues without a competitor bidding.

Good luck

-Chris

The FFIWOT strategy is not a rigid one. In some years this would be a week to pick up steals and deals while in other years, like this one, this is a trading week. There just isn’t much out there in the Free Agent market right now that wasn’t identified after week one.

Week 2 just didn’t put the shine on any diamonds half buried in the field and there were no major injuries of note. The exceptions may be L. Tomlinson (RB SD) with a toe ding and J Fargas (RB Oak) with a groin injury. In the former you can expect some sporadic short term opportunities from D Sproles (RB SD) and a new starting position for D McFadden (RB Oak).

The trading strategy is focused on two areas this week. One is bye week maneuvers and the other is looking for deals and steals. The latter is the harder of the 2 because you will need a big dose of patience and room on your bench to wait on the bargain bin picks to blossom. While patience is a virtue we can all acquire, with the bye week stretch coming up, make sure you have a strategy for bye week rotation.

We will feature the deals and steal trade opportunities in a later post analyzing the week 2 games. For now, lets look at our Chinese writing for some eastern advice on our western game. The favorite Chinese character of politicians is the one for crisis which they tell us is a combination of of the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. Its probably some BS (an abbreviation of English term for a male cow with the slang term for excrement) but the bye week danger/opportunity is not so lets plan.

Bye week analysis Step One:

I love the leagues that give you the small touches that make life easier like having the bye week of each player listed right there on your roster page. Fickle is as fickle does. I love the leagues that don’t have the small touches like the bye week listed on the roster page because if you are willing to put in a little work, you will have a strategic edge over the majority of the league who will not.

Either way, print out your roster and make sure the bye week is listed next to each player. Below is a list of bye weeks for your convenience

2008 NFL Bye Week Schedule (Revised for Hurricane reshuffling)

Week 2 Houston, Baltimore
Week 4 Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, Seattle
Week 5 Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis
Week 6 Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
Week 7 Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Week 8 Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota
Week 9 Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco
Week 10 Baltimore, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

[Original bye dates struck through]

Bye week analysis Step Two:

Go week by week and see who has a bye and who from your bench, you will use to fill in for them. Next, go see what team your fill in will be playing that week. For instance, in week 7 you want to plug in C Perry (RB Cin)  for your starters you would want to rethink that plan when you saw he will be up against the Steeler D. Make a list of your weak spots and the positions you have an abundance of players at.

Bye week analysis Step Three:

Look for trades for comparable players for the problem areas on your bench. IE C Perry above would be such a problem. Ideally you would want to trade them coming off a good week so their stock is high. Remember what their value to you is right now. C Perry is your starter in week 7 against the tough Pittsburgh defense and probably good for 45 yards rushing and no TDs.

Look at the match ups for week seven and find an RB who can do better than that (adjust for the match up). The worst teams against the run right now are the Bengals, Chiefs and Lions.

Bye week analysis step Four:

Repeat a similar analysis for ONLY week 4 for each of the other teams in your league. Find the teams that are going to have to plug in a real dud or better yet, will not have a starter somewhere due to byes in week 4. Now if you find such a team with a need in an area where you have an abundance, then a trade can certainly be offered. Be sure to point out their upcoming weakness as they will probably have not worked that out yet.

If you can identify a problem and offer a solution that is mutually beneficial you can make it easy for them to say yes to a trade that they may otherwise be a little skeptical of.

For for our steals and deals trade analysis later on FFIWOT

-Chris

Just after the first bye week its time to change the strategy up just a bit. Its a hard time to find diamonds in the rough and there is more competition now that people have to fill vacancies created by bye weeks.

Week 5 Byes: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Cincinnati

You still want to search the waiver wire but it should be for bargains, not out of desperation, right? You have a bye week plan for the next few weeks right? If not, get that done now!

If you have taken care of business, then you probably have a bench full of guys that could break out of could bust. You don’t want to drop them but someone will have to go eventually during the bye weeks so now is the time to trade.

Find the guys on your bench that are hot enough to get noticed but not hot enough to start. Offer them in trades to guys desperate because they did not plan for the bye and now with the slew of injuries…. opportunity

A couple examples from one of my benches: Greg Jennings WR GB and Earnest Graham RB TB. They guys are tradeable and in combination may allow you to upgrade at a key position.

Look at your waiver wire, especially if you are 1-3 in line but spend your real time on Tuesday Trade offers.

Just in case you do need to fill a bye hole this week here are a couple guys to look at:

Quarterbacks:

Anderson, Derek QB CLE: Good luck getting now.

Campbell, Jason QB WAS: Great match up this week with Detroit

Carr, David QB CAR: This is a decent gamble. I know he has looked like crap but if Delhomme goes under the knife this may become his team and he had some very good fantasy games in Houston when he had some time to throw.

Brees, Drew QB NO: The stock can only go up from here. He is better than this, get him now.

Morris, Sammy RB NE: He has certainly capitalized on his part time role

Fargas, Justin RB OAK: Maybe not

Pittman, Michael RB TB: Will be the yardage and receiving head of the monster

Graham, Earnest RB TB: Will be the goal line touchdown scoring head.

Crayton, Patrick WR DAL: Apparently he learned how to catch this week. Don’t count on it every week. If I picked this guy up it would be to turn around and trade him on his hype

Porter, Jerry WR OAK: Seems like every year there is a time when it looks like Porter has arrived and then it and he go away. See Crayton above

Davis, Andre WR HOU: Taking advantage of the PT

Williams, Roydell WR TEN: I think he will become Young’s guy if he isn’t already

Northcutt, Dennis WR JAC: Showed some promise if they can get him the ball

-Chris

Don’t forget, the first Bye week is this weekend. Teams with byes include New Orleans, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Washington. Maybe New Orleans can find their team from last year in their time off. Maybe not.

Here are some guys that may be in play in your league:

Quarterbacks:

Brian Griese, QB CHI: If your QB has a bye somewhere in weeks 6-10 and your #2 sucks or is non existent, Griese may be a good pickup to hold onto and see what develops. He may play as soon as this weekend as the Grossman era has to coming to an end. He is a solid veteran who will serve you well on a by or injury week

Trent Green, QB MIA: Ok, Trent has gone under the radar so far but her threw for 318 yards this week. Granted it was the Jets. Look for better production form this offense in the weeks to come. If he is available, he is at least worth a #2 spot.

Kurt Warner QB ARI: This is patrol car 54, we have a bandwagon heading west on I-10 easily exceeding the maximum number of passengers. Just stop, it was one week and they are not going to trash their future over this. They will use this to give Leinart a wake up call. Pick him up if you need a QB this weekend but I’m not even sure you’ll have him for that.

Running Backs

Deuce McAllister, RB NO: A metaphor for the Saints season. With Deuce done for the year look for Bush’s numbers to jump and possibly Aaron Steckler but I wouldn’t bother with him. If you are a gambler and see a need for RB down the road then take a chance on rookie RB Pierre Thomas who should now get worked into this offense some.

DeShaun Foster RB CAR: I used to be real high on this guy and maybe its just me but watching him on Sunday, he looked bigger and more like a north south runner. Anyway I’m still looking for him to be a one hit wonder here.

Kevin Jones/Tatum Bell RB DET: Tatum had his chance to claim this job and didn’t. Jones ran a couple on his foot and survived. look for Jones to split carries for a week or so and then assume the starting role. Drop Bell if you were holding him like me.

Wide Receivers:

Roddy White, WR ATL: Sorry, he’s going to have to put up more than one decent week to convince me

Vincent Jackson, WR SD: I’m ready to start this guy. I hope you listened and picked him up when he was availible.

Greg Jennings, WR GB: Patience is a virtue. It was wonderful seeing him take that crossing route to the house and help tie Marino’s record

Jerricho Cotchery, WR NYJ: If there is any sort of problem here its with the QB spot. Cotchery is for real.

Mike Furrey WR DET: He’s getting some touches but the rookie Calvin Johnson seems to have squeezed him out. To get only 43 yards on a day Kitna threw for well over 400 tells me that last year was last year, time to move on.

Donte’ Stallworth WR NE: I can’t figure this one out. I expected a huge year from him with Moss drawing the double team. I’m tempted to try and trade for him in all my leagues.

Jacoby Jones WR HOU: I was hih on this guy’s prospects but it looks like he needs some more seasoning. Maybe worth a look later in the year but I’m pulling the pug on this project.

Reggie Brown, WR PHI: Apparently the key to success in Philadelphia is to NOT throw it to Brown. This flash in the pan is extinguished.

Terry Glenn, WR DAL: This is as thin as I’ve seen the receiver depth in the league in a while. Glenn plus patience could mean some late season success. This Dallas air attack is for real but they may wrap up their division too soon.

-Chris

NFL Week 4 is the first Bye week. Is your team ready? Tennessee, New Orleans, Washington and Jacksonville get the early bye. If you haven’t already, you need to check your teams and make sure you aren’t left with a hole at a position because 3 of your 4 wide receivers play for these teams.

Week 4 Games:

Baltimore at Cleveland
Chicago at Detroit
Denver at Indianapolis
Green Bay at Minnesota
Houston at Atlanta
Kansas City at San Diego
NY Jets at Buffalo
Oakland at Miami
Philadelphia at NY Giants
Pittsburgh at Arizona
Seattle at San Francisco
St. Louis at Dallas
Tampa Bay at Carolina
New England at Cincinnati

Your best bet is to offer out a few trades. Be careful of a straight A to A trade as unless you are willing to downgrade that position, why would the other owner bother? A 2 for 2 trade works best where you can try and get equal value for the primary player and give them some value on the other.

An example: Lets say you have Frank Gore, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew. You are banking on Jones-Drew improving and you know you can’t get much for him now so you shop Portis on the trade blocks.

Maybe the guy who has Willis McGahee is stacked and RB and start 2 backs with him. Because it is a fairly even trade you will need to sweeten the pot with the other player in the deal. Lets say you add Braylon Edwards (assuming you are Ok at wide receiver without him) for his Jerry Porter.

Make some trades if at all possible because if you have to drop someone for the scraps left on the waiver wire you will be loosing value. You don’t want to be one of those guys who didn’t pay attention to the byes and have to decide to lose a game or lose a decent player.

If you absolutely have to pick up some players, here are a few options that may be available and could stand to have a decent week 4.

Quarterbacks
Green, Trent QB MIA
Losman, J.P. QB BUF
Grossman, Rex QB CHI

Running Backs
Morris, Maurice RB SEA
Foster, DeShaun RB CAR
Griffith, Justin RB OAK
Pittman, Michael RB TB

Wide Receivers
Booker, Marty WR MIA
Avant, Jason WR PHI
Jones, James WR GB
Horn, Joe WR ATL

Defenses
Raiders, DST DST OAK
Dolphins, DST DST MIA

-Chris