Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

For those who follow this blog you know FFIWOT (click here for WTF is FFIWOT) does not put a lot of stock in the preseason. Who cares what what star players do for one quarter against a bunch of third stringers looking to make the team or guys who know they have made the team and just don’t want to get hurt.

In fact, FFIWOT doesn’t even follow the preseason. What’s the point? It’s a distraction. Better to study what happened in the offseason (coming in a later post). The preseason is filled with hype and BS. While yes, the preseason can give valuable insights it more often offers up false hopes and misleading data. The preseason is a time for trades based on the hype. We’ll talk about that in a later post.

The preseason is also filled with rookie hype. Good lord, can we ever hear enough rookie hype from these guys who worship at the alter of college football? FFIWOT does not follow the JV. Again, why bother? Despite the fact that over the past 25 years you can count on one hand the number of rookie QBs who have come in and put up big numbers in their first year, we hears what seems like millions of hours spent debating the merits of each year’s new crops.

From a fantasy perspective, who the hell cares! FFIWOT Rule: Never keep a rookie QB on your roster. Sorry Mr. Flacco (QB Bal) and Mr. Ryan (QB Atl) but you will not even ride the pine on my team. For that matter, another FFIWOT Rule: Never keep a first year starting QB on your roster. Sorry Mr. J.T. O’Sullivan (QB SF). Let the fool coaches on the other teams in your fantasy league try and find the next Peyton Manning (QB Ind) or Dan Marino (QB Mia ret.) because for every one of them there are 25 Cade McNown’s (QB Chi). Look at Trent Edwards (QB Buf), who had a very respectable rookie season for a QB but I still wouldn’t have wanted him as my starting Fantasy QB or even my bye week QB. I will keep an eye on him this year but I not ready to commit if you know what I mean.

As far as rookies go, running back is usually the only position where an impact can be made by a rookie (Adrian Petersen, Min) with any degree of predictability and even then it’s rare to have a guy who you know has the talent and is on a team with blocking and where they will be the featured back.This year it looks like a couple prospects to watch include Matt Forte (RB Chi), Rashard Mendenhall (RB Pit), Jonathan Stewart (RB Car), and Kevin Smith (RB Det). My personal favorite is Mendenhall. I have always thought Willie Parker was not smashmouth enough for Pittsburgh but with a Bettis (RB Pit ret.) like north south back, a successful RBBC (Running Back By Committee) favoring Mendenhall. Look for box scores like this:

Parker 13 for 66 yds

Mendenhall 8 for 41 yds 1 TD

And Every third week or so count on Parker breaking a long one adding 45 yards and a TD to the above stats. You may ask where is Darren McFadden (RB Oak)? My answer would be, “He is in Oakland, that’s where he is”

You could argue that there are usually some rookie Wide Receivers that have good fantasy years but we could counter back that while that is true, it’s usually not the rookies that were predicted to do well during the preseason. Calvin Johnson (WR Det) would be an exception but for every Calvin Johnson there are several Charles Rogers (WR FA).

As for other positions, we’ll see. John Carlson (TE Sea) is getting the start in Seattle but even if he has a great rookie year that would probably place him in the mediocre middle of the pack of tight end where one is just as good as the other.

Finally a word about Drafts. We don’t offer ranking sheets and we don’t offer predictions. Personally I do auto-drafts and play with whatever the football gods decide to give me. FFIWOT is all about building on the team you have after the draft so look to one of the many other fantasy football sites for draft information but come back to us after the draft.

Good luck to all and lets get ready for some football!

-Chris

I like most of you have joined my leagues and my drafts have come and gone. Now for step one of the FFIWOT strategy. Most leagues draft you two Tight Ends and Two Defenses and some even have 2 Kickers. In most every year, there are 1-3 top shelf TE’s, Defenses and Kickers. Below that is are maybe 3-10 second tiers players/teams who are basically interchangeable depending on the given match up for the week.

So hopefully you have a top tier TE, Def and kicker but more likely you have at least 1 second tier and maybe 2 second tier at each. In each category, identify your best player and find out their bye week.

Next, look at your bye weeks across all your players at the other positions and make sure you don’t have two players at any one position with the same bye week. If you do, you’re going to need to put together a trade which we will talk about in a later post.

Now you have all this information. If you have a top tier TE, Def or Kicker, they are your starter. If you have have two tier 2 guys pick one that works well with your overall bye schedule and evaluate if the other one has any value in a possible trade. If your second guy is not even a tier 2 player then move on to the next step.

Now you count your expendable players and head over to the available Running Backs. Pick up or lay a claim to as many running backs as you can. Running backs are the key to fantasy football. They are the rarest of commodities and every available extra slot you can spare should contain the best available. If there are no decent ones available then take some gambles. Come mid season either you or your opponents will be desperate for a running back and you will either save your own butt or really have the upper hand for a trade to save theirs.

Surveying my leagues I see the following guys availible:
Vernand Morency: Get Him Now!! Noah Herron has been placed on IR and rookie Brandon Jackson has not impressed

Chester Taylor: He is a starter grab him
DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams: One of these guys could actually claim the job. A decent risk

Warrick Dunn: Warrick is aging and Jerious Norwood is the starter but that puts Warrick right back to where he belongs as a change of pace 3rd down back. His numbers will take a hit but should be solid

Kevin Jones: Latest news is he is day to day. Granted I like Bell better than Jones at this point, he is an acceptable risk

Chris Brown/Lendale White: Running back by committee but who knows.

Marshawn Lynch: Crappy preseason but this guy has a lot of upside

Happy Hunting

-Chris