Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

Wow, isn’t it funny how we are always surprised after week one by the wins and losses and how little it usually means in the big picture. The big news of course is Tom Brady (QB NE) out for the year. We’ll go game by game and analyze the fantasy impact and plug it into our strategy in out next post after we review our strategic goals at this point of the season. A good segue….

FFIWOT Strategy after week one:

Look at the big picture, keep realistic expectations and gamble based on some basic principals. Here are a couple rules that are relevant for this week.

FFIWOT Rules: Man your positions with as few players as needed except for Running Backs.

You need to learn to live with one Tight End, one defense (for this time of year), one kicker and two quarterbacks tops. If your number two and three guys at these positions are just so good you can’t drop them, then trade them. But maybe you point out that you will have no one if you top player get hurt or your defense starts stinking. FFIWOT may not be right for you unless you can get past this way of thinking.

If you have one of the elite tight ends then he is your starter and you ride his play for the year. Why have another pretty good guy to second guess yourself with, or worse, a sub par Tight end on your bench eating a roster spot. Beyond the elite top there is a deep pool of bland, “3 catches for 29 yard and 1 touchdown every 8 games” tight ends to go around. If your star gets hurt you will have to play tight end by weekly match up based on the free agents available.

Same strategy applies to kickers, quarterbacks (beyond 2 on the roster), and your defense (for this part of the season). The thing about defenses is they gel as the year goes by so I’m telling you there are some good defenses in the FA pool right now. Sometimes defenses, light on talent, benefit from their offense. Lets say Atlanta becomes a ball control and time of possession powerhouse which is not unrealistic given their running attack. Atlanta’s defense becomes a lot better just by virtue of not having to be on the field as much. The opposite could be said of Jacksonville and their offensive line problems. If they become a three and out team then that will put a lot of pressure on their defense.

Pick up as many Running Backs as you can without compromising wins by thinning out another position. You want an RB farm team of sorts so you can gamble on to three guys with the hopes (expectations really) that at least one becomes a fantasy stud. There is a good chance the other two will do nothing but when its time to move on (and not a week before then) we can dump that player and pick up our next prospect. Even if you are already set at running back when your farm stars arise, you will be prepared if one of your starters goes down to injury, as often they do. If you are lucky enough to have healthy running backs at the end of the year AND a rising star, then you will have a powerful and rare trading commodity to upgrade one of your other positions for the playoffs.

Our focus for the year is on the pool of Running Back and who may be a star four or five weeks from now. Examples of this right now would be Jonathan Stewart (RB Car) who will get more touches as the year goes on and may be found on waivers after an ok (fantasy-wise) 53 yard start.

We are looking for:

• Replacements to injured starters
• Young players who should work their way into the line ups
• Your favorite candidates of two horse races for the office of starting running back
• The back ups of injury prone players who are healthy for now

I know you are thinking, ” Yea that sounds good but everyone will be picking up these players”. You would think but it just ain’t so. Most of your opponents are undisciplined, impatient and overstaffed at the wrong positions. To be successful at this you have to have available roster spots for players who are unstartable for what could be several weeks. You must operate thin and be aware of your bye weeks.

FFIWOT Rule: For adds and drops we speculate on future value even at the cost of a short term win

Many Fantasy Football coaches loose sight of the goal which is to win the championship. Its nice to have an undefeated regular season but if your don’t win in the playoffs then so what. Sometimes you need to sacrifice a week so you can win several more weeks in the future.

FFIWOT Rule: Know your league rules!

Most leagues have pretty friendly rules for playoff entry where basically almost everyone is in and record just determines your spot in the bracket and thus who you play. In other leagues its the top four teams only, where a loss now could cost you a berth later.

FFIWOT Rule: With trades, Buy low and Sell High

We didn’t invent this saying but we live by it as a rule. You have to be willing to make some bad calls and live with them. You have to be patient and most importantly unemotional.

How can you possibly trade Willing Parker (RB PIT) right now when he is on a pace to to run for 2208 yard and 48 rushing touchdowns! That’s what your emotional self says. Your logical self says because he will do neither is why you would consider trading him right now while his stock is at it’s peak. You look at the fact that while Parker will no doubt have a good year, his carries will eventually decrease as Rashard Mendenhall’s (RB PIT) go up. Sure he had a subpar outing in the same game Parker blew it up but maybe Jacksonville is better suited to stop his style of running. Maybe it’s a bad idea to trade Parker, depends on you specific circumstance. The point is, if you were even going to entertain the thought, right now, today is the time to do it.

Today you should be printing out your league rosters and making trade offers like mad in search of the deals and steals that emotional, reactionary fellow coaches present.

Look for our game by game analysis with fantasy impact, later today

-Chris

Well, it’s that time of the year. If you are reading this then I’ll assume your team is still in contention for the playoffs. You should have already looked at your key match ups for the coming weeks and picked up replacements. If you didn’t or you have some injured players then for god sake, stop reading this and get your waiver claims in.

Its always great to look at what you are talking about at this point in the season and compare it to what you would have thought you’d be talking about had you predicted back in pre-season.

Who would have thought that players such as Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, and Carnell Williams, Sean Alexander, Frank Gore and Rudi Johnson would be gone or marginalized.

I think a lot of people would have expected to be talking about Travis Henry’s quest for 2000 yards.

Adrian Peterson has been a nice story but not too surprising. You want surprising, lets talk, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant, Justin Fargas, Derrick Ward and lets not forget Jamal Lewis’ comeback in Cleveland.

You can look and find this at some of this other positions as well but year in and year out it is the management of the running back position that wins championships and this constant scouting and gambling is why Fantasy Football Is Won On Tuesdays.

-Chris

Its getting down to crunch time. Hopefully you are all set at Wide Receiver and Running Back. If for some reason you haven’t been following the plan and you need a running back you have Kolby Smith in KC, Justin Fargas in Oakland, Adrian Peterson in Chicago, Anthony Thomas in Buffalo and even Fred Taylor has re-emerged in Jacksonville.

I would hope you can identify one Receiver or Running Back on your bench you can dump. Find that player, or two and pick up the best free agent defenses you can find. Too many byes and injuries make it impractical up to now but from here on in you want three defenses to choose from each week so you can identify the best match up.

Defense doesn’t seem to get it’s due in Fantasy Football but that is alright by us. You can tap into 3-10 extra points per week by picking the best match ups. Many teams will start looking at the talent on the bench which means possibly big games for even middle of the road defenses.

Even if there is no solid defense to pick up, there may be a good match up to pick. San Francisco looks good at Carolina this week.

Ok, so for a while it looked like there was a glut of running backs and it was the wide receiver position that needed attention. Well, it looks like the RB position is not going to stop being the force that drives fantasy football anytime soon.

Three trends have converged to make having a quality fantasy back with several backup options essential to success.

The first is not really a trend but rather a norm in the NFL. Backs go down and there are always stars that end up on IR. This year is no exception with the likes of Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister and Cadillac Williams all gone for the year. You have a score of other starters who have had injury problems such as Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson and Brandon Jacobs.

The second trend is the disappointing seasons for so many quality backs. Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney to single some out. There are differing reasons for each one’s problems but in the end they are producing far less than what was projected on opening day.

The third trend, in my opinion is more of a reaction to the first two than a trend in general and that is of the two headed beast at RB. I don’t see a lot of great running backs I see a lot of very mediocre running backs with coaches trying to plug in whoever is running better that week.

I don’t care how a coach frames it or positions it, you run a two back system because neither one of them is good enough to step up at take the starting role. If they are both that good you flip a coin and trade the other.

We seem to be at one of those historic points in the NFL where we are approaching a changing of the guard. Every now and then the slate gets pretty much wiped clean and a new generation of talent comes to the front.

Times like these are magnified when you have a few years without a super-talent back like a Jim Brown, Walter Payton, or Barry Sanders type. Then comes Adrian Peterson and we look and realize just how mediocre even the top backs currently look in historical perspective.

Take a look at three of the top backs from the past couple years. Larry Johnson and Sean Alexander maybe haven’t had the gaping holes of years past to run through. Even though LT has righted the ship for the most part seemed to have trouble when the leads and the schemes designed to open up lanes for them were not there (IE Martyball). Without the advantages these back have looked pretty average at times.

I see Adrian Peterson and I think back to Walter Payton and Barry Sanders playing all those years on sub par teams where the defenses knew they would be getting the ball and they ran for big gains anyway. Does anyone think that Minnesota will be passing the ball up and down the field? Peterson is clearly, all by himself, the top tier of RB in the NFL.

The bottom line is you need to have the best of the that vast third tier of talent beyond all the second tier starters below Peterson. This year proves again that every available space on a roster early in the year needs to contain running backs.

If you picked up your running backs on Tuesdays then you should be winning games in November.

What an interesting week of games. It almost looks like we can call the November 4th showdown between New England and Indianapolis the the preview to the De facto Super bowl. It is amazing how much better the AFC looks again this year than the NFC.

In fact, with the exception of the Bears Defense and the Cowboys offense there isn’t a whole lot to look at in the NFC for post season activity at this point. Where dem Saints?

Why does it look like every team in the NFC is on the decline and every team in the AFC is on the rise? The NFC has the Saints, Falcons, Rams, Giants, Panthers and Bears while the AFC has the Colts, Patriots, Steelers and …..Texans?

Ok, maybe its not really the AFC over NFC but Really the Colts, Patriots, Steelers and up until last night, the Chargers being so much better seemingly than the rest of the league. I guess thats a big assessment after only two weeks. We’ll see.

The Quarterbacks

Schaub, Matt QB HOU: I’m still not convinced for the long haul but a nice start. I would be happy to have him as my bye week QB.

Garcia, Jeff QB TB: I have always been a fan and I think he would be a great #2.

Garrard, David QB JAC: I’d shop for a new #2 unless he has a great match up in your bye week

Bulger, Marc QB STL: It’s hard to throw touchdown’s from your back or worse yet, IR.

Green, Trent QB MIA: Given some time he is going to make a decent starter for someone affected by injury later in the year.

Brees, Drew QB NO: Trade for him now cause his stock can only go one way.

Jackson, Tarvaris QB MIN: Stay away from young QB’s

The Running Backs

Lewis, Jamal RB CLE: One week does not make a season

Wynn, DeShawn RB GB: My money is still on Vernand Morency

Jordan, LaMont RB OAK: I’m starting to believe

White, LenDale RB TEN: Damn thee cursed running back by committee

Dunn, Warrick RB ATL: Nice pickup if available

Morris, Sammy RB NE: Damn thee again cursed running back by committee

Jackson, Steven RB STL: A slow start may be a chance for a bargain back

Johnson, Larry RB KC: See Steven Jackson

Maroney, Laurence RB NE: Damn thee thrice cursed running back by committee

Brown, Ronnie RB MIA: See Larry Johnson

The Wide Receivers

Galloway, Joey WR TB: 35 and still alive deep. Wow. He’s probably not available but if so, you know what to do

Johnson, Andre WR HOU: A resurgent year

Williams, Roy WR DET: Balls are flying in Detroit

Johnson, Calvin WR DET:

Bruce, Isaac WR STL: How many big games has he had against the Niners? I remember one time when OJ Simpson was in the backfield for the 49ers… Ok, its only been 14 years but wow. Don’t look for many more days like this

Williams, Roydell WR TEN: Maybe becoming the target in Tennessee?

Porter, Jerry WR OAK: Okay, time for him to disappear for the next 8 games or so.

Williams, Reggie WR JAC: Could be the goto guy if he were able to step up. I wouldn’t start this guy on a regular basis
Jones, Jacoby WR HOU: Wow, I found big talk about this guy and then promoted him myself. Serves me right for not doing my own homework. A flop so far.