Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

The first three weeks are past us now and we have uncovered some sleepers like Aaron Rogers (QB GB) and complained about some superstuds putting up superdud numbers like Derek Anderson (QB Cle). He have seen Tom Brady (QB NE) go down and we have sung Kombayah until we can sing no more.

Week 4 is where we start to separate the men from the boys, the wheat from the chaff, the goats from thee sheep, the notes from the noise, the rice from the hulls, the peanuts from the butter, the pretenders from the contenders and where the FFIWOT strategy starts to kick in full throttle.

Suddenly, this morning, millions of fantasy football players logged in to see where they sit in their league. To the horror of many as they pulled up their roster and they suddenly discovered that 2 of their running backs have a bye next week and the third is injured! [insert scream here]

This is where our preparedness pays dividends. The guy who wouldn’t have traded his Kyle Orton (QB Chi) for your Peyton Manning (QB Ind) just a week ago will suddenly jump and an opportunity to get a Jason Campbell (QB Was).

FFIWOT Rule: During Bye weeks only offer trades that both solve the other players dilemma while upgrading your roster just enough to not send up warning flags.

If you have decent receivers on your bench and there are people with empty wide receiver slots because of byes and injury then for god sake don’t just sit there make an offer. People will trade the like of Ryan Grant (RB GB) for the like of a L Coles (WR NYJ) coming off his first and only touchdown. Now in week 12, when the Packers are looking toward the playoffs and the Jets are are scratching their heads wondering why in thee world they brought a 72 year old QB into a new system on a new team and expected miracles to happen, which of the aforementioned player do you think will be more valuable? This assumes you have a Wide Receiver to spare to make the trade to begin with…

Remember, even if this guy is desperate you still have to get this trade past the rest of the league. The goal is to be the problems solver for other players and in return for this community service you charge a small player upgrade fee. These upgrades compound during the bye weeks until you come out the other side a much more fordable team.

FFIWOT Rule: During bye weeks, offer at least one trade option for every problem you can solve and when possible, offer several versions and let them pick.

Throw as much spaghetti at the wall as you can and some will certainly stick.

FFIWOT Rule: Be willing to trade or add a player that will win you games down the road even if you have to leave a slot empty and loose a game early in the year.

Example: For a guy needing a to fill a running back slot, a Pierre Thomas (RB NO) is a life saver and worth the M Colston taking up space on his bench. He’s worried about right now and you’ll be thinking about the second half of the season when suddenly you find you have a healthy top shelf wide receiver and he has a guy averaging 22 yards per game and occasionally stealing a goalline touchdown.

FFIWOT Rule: Every year they say that the running back position is no long the most important because of early season apparent shortages at wide receive and/or quarterback. Every year it is the player who stocked up on running back talent who has a better team at the end of the year.

Pick up the young guys like the J Stewarts (RB Car) and the Steve Slatons (RB Hou) and take chances on guys like R Mendenhall getting his first start this weekend.

FFIWOT Rule: Every other year they talk about the emergence of the Running Back By Committee and they sing the death knell of the primary back and every year the majority of the RBBCs see a dominant back emerge. Backing the right guy early can be the difference down the road.

The two headed monster is not a myth. They exist but there just aint as many that last the whole year as it seem there will be in week 1. If I had to pick some good candidates from some of the RBBC teams out there I would look at S Young (RB Den), C Johnson (RB Ten), J Stewart (RB Car) and maybe L McClain (RB Bal). These are not locks but if you hedge your bets and pick wisely then toward playoff time you can have this year’s Ryan Grant (RB GB) or E Graham (RB TB) who both emerged from these kind of situation to be late season superstars.

-Chris

Tuesday…. This week is a trading week as there is not much on the waiver wire in most leagues. Below is a list of deals and steals to trade for, and a list of OVPs (overly valued players) to trade away while their perceived value is high. Lastly are the D&Rs (dump and run) which are people taking up valuable real estate on your bench.

Keep in mind that you will NOT see the biggest names in football below as they do not fit into the three categories. Most fit into the category: Players no one in their right mind will trade away.

Week 2

Sunday

Chicago 17
Carolina « 20

Deals: n/a

Steals: J Delhomme (QB Car) had a very K Orton (QB Chi) like day against the Bears D. He gets his top receiver back in S Smith (WR Car) next week. Make an offer for him if the owner has another decent QB on the roster.

OVPs: D Hester (WR Chi) Turns out catching the ball is a little different that returns. Wait for a decent week if you can then try to get something for him.

D&Rs: K Jones (RB Chi) was worth an early bench spot while waiting for things to unfold in the Chicago backfield but M Forte (RB Chi) looks for real and looks to be a solid starter. Only if he gets injured is Jones worth a look for now

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Tennessee « 24
Cincinnati 7

Deals: C Johnson (WR Cin) has a hurting shoulder. T Houshmandzadeh (WR Cin) and Ocho Cinco are both suffering from the horrendous play of the Cincinnati offense right now. It could be argued that they are in fact the problem there. My point here is if you have room on your bench, make some lowball offers to see what their owners may take. It won’t be like this forever in Cincy. C Perry could fall into this category too as he will get better over the course of the year as well.

Steals: C Palmer could be had for a song right now. I believe they have to improve and this guy is at least worth a bench spot and by the end of the season, who knows, maybe he’ll be your starter.

OVPs: L White (RB Ten) It looks like we will see a RBBC (running back by committee) with C Johnson (RB Ten) for a while but clearly Johnson will get the bulk of the load from here so get something fro White coming off a a TD while you can.

D&Rs: n/a..for now

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Green Bay « 48
Detroit 25

Deals: K Smith (RB Det) What I like is that this kid can catch so when Detroit is behind, which will be a good part of the season, he can still be involved. Look for him to have his best days still ahead

Steals: R Grant (RB GB) has had a horrible start but I would love to have him on my bench in a few weeks

OVPs: A Rogers (QB GB) Alright, I admit this guy truly is better than I thought and would be a good starter. I think though that his stock is so high right now that he will be hard pressed to play at the level of his current perceived value right now. I think you could make a favorable trade if you involved 4 or more players (ie Rogers and another player for a QB and another player)

D&Rs: R Johnson (RB Det) He is clearing on a team that is going to need to pass a lot so I just don’t see a lot of PT for him.

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Buffalo « 20
Jacksonville 16

Deals: n/a

Steals: M Jones-Drew (RB Jac) can be picked up for very little I would think. If not avoid him because he will eat a spot on the bench until Jacksonville can right their ship. If your RBs have late byes then he may make a great steal

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: I have been warning about Jacksonville and it isn’t going to get better soon as they have Indy and Pittsburgh in 2 of the next 3. I am staying away from that whole offense with one possible exception (see above)

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Oakland « 23
Kansas City 8

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: D McFadden (RB Oak) Play up the point that he will likely be the starter from here but lets face it, you can’t play KC every week and without a passing attack, well…

D&Rs: If you have any QB that was associated with this game, for god sake man, get them the hell off your team!

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Indianapolis « 18
Minnesota 15

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: Its hard to believe but I think M Harrison (WR Ind) has fallen into this bunch. He will still have days but I think he is too inconsistent to be a viable as a fill in you can count on. B Berrian falls into this category as well. What a bust he has been so far with 3 catches for 38 yards in both games combined.

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NY Giants « 41
St. Louis 13

Deals:

Steals: You can probably get any skill player on St Louis pretty easily but its a gamble. Clearly M Bulger (QB StL), T Holt (WR StL) and S Jackson (RB StL) will have some big numbers here and there the question is where and when

OVPs:

D&Rs: S Smith (WR NYG) Smith has clearly not upped his game since the Superbowl heroics. R McMichael (TE StL) has disappointed after some quality years in Miami.

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New Orleans 24
Washington « 29

Deals:

Steals: D McAllister (RB NO) and/or P Thomas (RB NO) the tough part is determining which one of these guys is the steal. R Bush (RB NO) is clearly not built to be a one man show. My money has been on Deuce but he got his first 2 carries of the year in this game. Even though he got 5 yards a pop it seems for some reason that they are going to ease him in very slowly. Time will tell

OVPs: I’m not sure if the west coast offense suddenly clicked or what but I would shop J Campbell (QB Was) just to see if there are any takers with a good offer.

D&Rs:

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San Francisco « 33
Seattle 30

Deals: I can’t figure either of these teams out. I would say grab F Gore (RB SF) if you can get a deal on him but as far as anybody else on either roster goes I would wait another week and see what bizarre turns it brings

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Atlanta 9
Tampa Bay « 24

Deals: J Galloway (WR TB) may be acquired on the cheap. The issue is that he is a deep threat and Tampa can’t find a QB who throw deeper than  20 yards. Where is Doug Williams when you need him?

Steals:

OVPs: You missed your chance with M Turner (RB Atl) last week. You could have traded him for the world. The good news is even though you have to keep him for another week, you have a solid back that you should be happy to hold on to. You’re just not going to get 200 yards every week

D&Rs: M Ryan (QB Atl) Rookie QBs are trouble

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Miami 10
Arizona « 31

Deals: K Warner (QB Ari) was a deal but the cat is out of the bag and the Cardinals have been playing good on both sides of the ball. Of course they have knocked off two juggernauts in San Fran and Miami. Their next 2 are Washington and the Jets. Can you say 4-0 in the desert?

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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San Diego 38
Denver « 39

Deals: S Young (RB Den) will end up being the 1000 yard back in Denver, he’ll just need to earn the right for a while.

Steals:

OVPs: C Chambers (WR Mia) I have to be honest, I’m not a fan. This guy seems to have all kinds of potential but has only had one 1000 yard season back in 2005. He seems to put together some big games surrounded by a lot of very mediocre ones. If you are a great guesser as to which week is the next one he is a great receiver to have otherwise he will float a goose egg in the week you needed just 3 more points to win.

D&Rs:

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New England « 19
NY Jets 10

Deals: R Moss (WR NE) You may actually be able to strike a deal for ol’ Randy. Give it time and he and M Cassel (QB NE) will build some chemistry.

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Pittsburgh « 10
Cleveland 6

Deals: B Edwards (WR Cle) and D Anderson (QB Cle) can both probably be negotiated for at this point. Both will turn it around in the weeks to come

Steals: R Mendenhall (RB Pit) can be had cheap and maybe even off the waiver wire. You are going to have to wait 4 or 5 games but it will pay off as they can’t run W Parker (RB Pit) near thirty times a game and have him last.

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Monday

Philadelphia 37
Dallas « 41

Deals: Good luck finding a deal here and these guys on either team don’t look overrated.

Steals: Some potential steals are K Curtis (WR Phi) and R Brown (WR Phi). The Philadelphia air attack has done well without them and I believe both will have plenty of opportunity for big numbers once they get healthy

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Postponed due to Hurricane Ike

Baltimore
Houston

Deals: Its hard to gleam much wisdom when we have only seen each team play once. We can tell by the second week performance of their opponents that Houston played a pretty good defense and Baltimore played a team with some serious troubles. Because of the last second nature of the announcement some people had to make some hasty moves so you may get a waiver claim for some guys like an O Daniels (TE Hou), S Slaton (RB Hou) or if you really need a WR, K Walter (WR Hou).

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

Good luck in your trades.

-Chris