Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

The first three weeks are past us now and we have uncovered some sleepers like Aaron Rogers (QB GB) and complained about some superstuds putting up superdud numbers like Derek Anderson (QB Cle). He have seen Tom Brady (QB NE) go down and we have sung Kombayah until we can sing no more.

Week 4 is where we start to separate the men from the boys, the wheat from the chaff, the goats from thee sheep, the notes from the noise, the rice from the hulls, the peanuts from the butter, the pretenders from the contenders and where the FFIWOT strategy starts to kick in full throttle.

Suddenly, this morning, millions of fantasy football players logged in to see where they sit in their league. To the horror of many as they pulled up their roster and they suddenly discovered that 2 of their running backs have a bye next week and the third is injured! [insert scream here]

This is where our preparedness pays dividends. The guy who wouldn’t have traded his Kyle Orton (QB Chi) for your Peyton Manning (QB Ind) just a week ago will suddenly jump and an opportunity to get a Jason Campbell (QB Was).

FFIWOT Rule: During Bye weeks only offer trades that both solve the other players dilemma while upgrading your roster just enough to not send up warning flags.

If you have decent receivers on your bench and there are people with empty wide receiver slots because of byes and injury then for god sake don’t just sit there make an offer. People will trade the like of Ryan Grant (RB GB) for the like of a L Coles (WR NYJ) coming off his first and only touchdown. Now in week 12, when the Packers are looking toward the playoffs and the Jets are are scratching their heads wondering why in thee world they brought a 72 year old QB into a new system on a new team and expected miracles to happen, which of the aforementioned player do you think will be more valuable? This assumes you have a Wide Receiver to spare to make the trade to begin with…

Remember, even if this guy is desperate you still have to get this trade past the rest of the league. The goal is to be the problems solver for other players and in return for this community service you charge a small player upgrade fee. These upgrades compound during the bye weeks until you come out the other side a much more fordable team.

FFIWOT Rule: During bye weeks, offer at least one trade option for every problem you can solve and when possible, offer several versions and let them pick.

Throw as much spaghetti at the wall as you can and some will certainly stick.

FFIWOT Rule: Be willing to trade or add a player that will win you games down the road even if you have to leave a slot empty and loose a game early in the year.

Example: For a guy needing a to fill a running back slot, a Pierre Thomas (RB NO) is a life saver and worth the M Colston taking up space on his bench. He’s worried about right now and you’ll be thinking about the second half of the season when suddenly you find you have a healthy top shelf wide receiver and he has a guy averaging 22 yards per game and occasionally stealing a goalline touchdown.

FFIWOT Rule: Every year they say that the running back position is no long the most important because of early season apparent shortages at wide receive and/or quarterback. Every year it is the player who stocked up on running back talent who has a better team at the end of the year.

Pick up the young guys like the J Stewarts (RB Car) and the Steve Slatons (RB Hou) and take chances on guys like R Mendenhall getting his first start this weekend.

FFIWOT Rule: Every other year they talk about the emergence of the Running Back By Committee and they sing the death knell of the primary back and every year the majority of the RBBCs see a dominant back emerge. Backing the right guy early can be the difference down the road.

The two headed monster is not a myth. They exist but there just aint as many that last the whole year as it seem there will be in week 1. If I had to pick some good candidates from some of the RBBC teams out there I would look at S Young (RB Den), C Johnson (RB Ten), J Stewart (RB Car) and maybe L McClain (RB Bal). These are not locks but if you hedge your bets and pick wisely then toward playoff time you can have this year’s Ryan Grant (RB GB) or E Graham (RB TB) who both emerged from these kind of situation to be late season superstars.

-Chris

Its been a long day of offering many, many trades and keeping an eye for dropped gold. After the first week you get a lot of emotional and reactionary owners dropping prime time players because they didn’t have a spectacular first game. On the flip side, the people act like the big performance put on by the players with the top stats this week will have numbers like that every week. We’re going to go game by game and look at how the players involved could be over or undervalued by these folks.

Unless you are in a league with your buddies where you know their playing style and trading styles you should be making as many offers as feasible around your league. For instance, I have Mark Clayton (WR Bal) on one of my teams. He had decent number because of a reverse where he ran for 42 yards and scored. Without that he had 3 catches for 21 yards. He is not going to score on a reverse every week and with a rookie QB I think he will have lots of 3 for 21 weeks. I am offering him to everyone I can. Obviously I’m not going to get a TO but I can maybe get a Minnesota Vikings defense or he can be bundled into a four player trade (2 for 2).

Remember, the worst they can do is say no.

Also, keep your eyes open on the waiver wire. People see one bad week and drop a guy who just needs a few weeks to get going.

Thursday Night Game

Giants        16
Redskins    7

There were no big surprises from a fantasy perspective here as the big time players performed withing their expected ranges. One area of surprise was at the tight end position on both teams. Cooley (TE Was) getting 1 catch for 7 yards had better be an aberration or Bush won’t be the only lame duck in DC.  On the other side of the coin, with the departure of Jeremy Shockey (TE NO) left an opening for Kevin Boss (TE NYG) who stepped in an recorded a goose egg. I may be acting like one of those reactionaries I mention above but their are too many middle of the pack tight end available to wait for this guy to record a catch. There, he should thank me as I have just guaranteed him a 10 for 130 yard day and 2 TDs.

FFIWOT: Make a low ball offer for Cooley

Sunday Games

Lions            21
Falcons        34

Wow. The Falcons have two big backs and a Rookie who showed some poise in week one. I’m not rushing out to sign the Atlanta WR corp though because he is a rookie and will have some bad days. Look for defenses to key on the run and force Ryan (QB Atl) to try and beat them. I’m holding on to Turner even though I know this was probably his best game of the season. If I were going to trade him, this would be the week.

FFIWOT: Trade Michael Jenkins (WR Atl) while the stock is fairly high.

Chiefs        10
Patriots      17

KC’s folks performed as expected. Obviously with Brady (QB NE) out for the year it totally changes the complexion of the Patriots. R Moss (WR NE) will still get his to a lesser degree but still good. Look for this to become an offensively conservative team that relies on defense.

FFIWOT: Trade W Welker (WR NE) ASAP while last years numbers still sway some influence. Get Maroney (RB NE) or Morris (RB NE) if you can.
Seahawks     10
Bills              34

Wow again. I didn’t watch this game so I’m not sure if the Bills improved that much or Seattle, always the schizophrenic, just played bad.

FFIWOT: Keep an eye on these teams for now
Bengals         10
Ravens          17

Speaking of schizophrenic teams… The Ravens have their usual good D.

FFIWOT: Sell now any Ravens you have. Buy now any Bengals you can get for a bargain

Texans         17
Steelers        38

I guess Willie Parker (RB Pit) is not ready to give up the running back spotlight just yet.

FFIWOT: If you have space on your bench and you are patient and the force is strong in you then pick up R Mendenhall (RB Pit) dirt cheap and wait for mid season dividends.
Jaguars       10
Titans         17

Chris Johnson (RB Ten) looks like the real deal. The Jags are in a real bind. They were thin on the O line and then managed to loose their two starting Guards for the year. They just signed a guard a few hours ago but they are going to be struggling for a while as their offense sputtered on Sunday

Get what you can for L White (RB Ten) now while you can. If you have Jag skill players your choice is to be patient for a few (or several) weeks while they patch together a line and get them working well together. Meanwhile the production of the offense will be down.

FFIWOT: Consider dropping (trade if you can) Fred Taylor (RB Jac). Don’t go rushing to pick up Matt Jones (WR Jac) as he will surely disappoint as he always does. Bench Garrard (QB Jac) and Jones-Drew (RB Jac) as they will be productive by mid season or before. If you have a spot on your bench, pick up Jones-Drew.
Rams            3
Eagles          38

What happens when team A has their best game of the year the same week team B has their worst. See boxscore. The Eagles are a good team and the Rams a bad one but the one is not that good and the other is not that bad

FFIWOT: Don’t go picking up Eagles because of one game. You should be selling Eagles and buying Rams
Cowboys       28
Browns          10

The Cowboys looked pretty damn good. Look for Cleveland to rebound and be better than this.

FFIWOT: Pick up Browns when you can get them cheap. I’m not sure many people are giving up on Braylon Edwards (WR Cle) just yet but you never know.
Jets              20
Dolphins     14

Ok, Favre won his first one out of the gate. I love Bret but sell him if you got him and have another good QB. They beat the Dolphins for god sake, not the Giants.

FFIWOT: Sell Favre. Pick up L Coles (WR NYJ) really cheap.
Buccaneers     20
Saints             24

No Fantasy surprises here from the guys who played

FFIWOT: Deuce McAllister rode the pine and is available in seemingly every league in the world. This guy is worth a spot on your bench. He had a great preseason and has a solid track record. Pick him up and wait.

Panthers      26
Chargers     24

Exciting game!

FFIWOT: Pick up J Stewart (RB Car) if he is available and if you need a tight end, make a waiver claim for D Rosario (TE Car)
Bears            29
Colts            13

Peyton looked a little sluggish. M Forte (RB Chi) looked great.

FFIWOT: If K Jones (RB Chi) is available and you have a bench spot, he could make a decent bye week fill in depending on who the Bears are playing.

Monday Night Games

Vikings        19
Packers        24

Another good game. Begin the A Rodgers Era. T Jackson (QB Min) still looks like a rookie to me and that hurts his receiving squad too. Stay away from them.

FFIWOT: Sell Rodgers (QB GB) now while his stock is miles high. I see only one place he can go from here. Wait for B Berrian to have a decent game and pawn him off for what you can get.
Broncos      41
Raiders       14

An old friend of mine who I haven’t talked to in years is a lifelong Raider fan and I just felt sad for him on Monday.I have heard of running back by committee referring to 2 backs sharing the load. Denver has running back by the entire damn Congress. One primary will surely emerge.

FFIWOT: Sell E Royal (WR Den). He is obviously a very good player but his numbers have to come down when B Marshall (WR Den) returns. If you have a spot, try and get A Hall (RB Den) in case he emerges to the top of the Denver RB heap.

-Chris

Wow, isn’t it funny how we are always surprised after week one by the wins and losses and how little it usually means in the big picture. The big news of course is Tom Brady (QB NE) out for the year. We’ll go game by game and analyze the fantasy impact and plug it into our strategy in out next post after we review our strategic goals at this point of the season. A good segue….

FFIWOT Strategy after week one:

Look at the big picture, keep realistic expectations and gamble based on some basic principals. Here are a couple rules that are relevant for this week.

FFIWOT Rules: Man your positions with as few players as needed except for Running Backs.

You need to learn to live with one Tight End, one defense (for this time of year), one kicker and two quarterbacks tops. If your number two and three guys at these positions are just so good you can’t drop them, then trade them. But maybe you point out that you will have no one if you top player get hurt or your defense starts stinking. FFIWOT may not be right for you unless you can get past this way of thinking.

If you have one of the elite tight ends then he is your starter and you ride his play for the year. Why have another pretty good guy to second guess yourself with, or worse, a sub par Tight end on your bench eating a roster spot. Beyond the elite top there is a deep pool of bland, “3 catches for 29 yard and 1 touchdown every 8 games” tight ends to go around. If your star gets hurt you will have to play tight end by weekly match up based on the free agents available.

Same strategy applies to kickers, quarterbacks (beyond 2 on the roster), and your defense (for this part of the season). The thing about defenses is they gel as the year goes by so I’m telling you there are some good defenses in the FA pool right now. Sometimes defenses, light on talent, benefit from their offense. Lets say Atlanta becomes a ball control and time of possession powerhouse which is not unrealistic given their running attack. Atlanta’s defense becomes a lot better just by virtue of not having to be on the field as much. The opposite could be said of Jacksonville and their offensive line problems. If they become a three and out team then that will put a lot of pressure on their defense.

Pick up as many Running Backs as you can without compromising wins by thinning out another position. You want an RB farm team of sorts so you can gamble on to three guys with the hopes (expectations really) that at least one becomes a fantasy stud. There is a good chance the other two will do nothing but when its time to move on (and not a week before then) we can dump that player and pick up our next prospect. Even if you are already set at running back when your farm stars arise, you will be prepared if one of your starters goes down to injury, as often they do. If you are lucky enough to have healthy running backs at the end of the year AND a rising star, then you will have a powerful and rare trading commodity to upgrade one of your other positions for the playoffs.

Our focus for the year is on the pool of Running Back and who may be a star four or five weeks from now. Examples of this right now would be Jonathan Stewart (RB Car) who will get more touches as the year goes on and may be found on waivers after an ok (fantasy-wise) 53 yard start.

We are looking for:

• Replacements to injured starters
• Young players who should work their way into the line ups
• Your favorite candidates of two horse races for the office of starting running back
• The back ups of injury prone players who are healthy for now

I know you are thinking, ” Yea that sounds good but everyone will be picking up these players”. You would think but it just ain’t so. Most of your opponents are undisciplined, impatient and overstaffed at the wrong positions. To be successful at this you have to have available roster spots for players who are unstartable for what could be several weeks. You must operate thin and be aware of your bye weeks.

FFIWOT Rule: For adds and drops we speculate on future value even at the cost of a short term win

Many Fantasy Football coaches loose sight of the goal which is to win the championship. Its nice to have an undefeated regular season but if your don’t win in the playoffs then so what. Sometimes you need to sacrifice a week so you can win several more weeks in the future.

FFIWOT Rule: Know your league rules!

Most leagues have pretty friendly rules for playoff entry where basically almost everyone is in and record just determines your spot in the bracket and thus who you play. In other leagues its the top four teams only, where a loss now could cost you a berth later.

FFIWOT Rule: With trades, Buy low and Sell High

We didn’t invent this saying but we live by it as a rule. You have to be willing to make some bad calls and live with them. You have to be patient and most importantly unemotional.

How can you possibly trade Willing Parker (RB PIT) right now when he is on a pace to to run for 2208 yard and 48 rushing touchdowns! That’s what your emotional self says. Your logical self says because he will do neither is why you would consider trading him right now while his stock is at it’s peak. You look at the fact that while Parker will no doubt have a good year, his carries will eventually decrease as Rashard Mendenhall’s (RB PIT) go up. Sure he had a subpar outing in the same game Parker blew it up but maybe Jacksonville is better suited to stop his style of running. Maybe it’s a bad idea to trade Parker, depends on you specific circumstance. The point is, if you were even going to entertain the thought, right now, today is the time to do it.

Today you should be printing out your league rosters and making trade offers like mad in search of the deals and steals that emotional, reactionary fellow coaches present.

Look for our game by game analysis with fantasy impact, later today

-Chris