Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

Tuesday…. This week is a trading week as there is not much on the waiver wire in most leagues. Below is a list of deals and steals to trade for, and a list of OVPs (overly valued players) to trade away while their perceived value is high. Lastly are the D&Rs (dump and run) which are people taking up valuable real estate on your bench.

Keep in mind that you will NOT see the biggest names in football below as they do not fit into the three categories. Most fit into the category: Players no one in their right mind will trade away.

Week 2

Sunday

Chicago 17
Carolina « 20

Deals: n/a

Steals: J Delhomme (QB Car) had a very K Orton (QB Chi) like day against the Bears D. He gets his top receiver back in S Smith (WR Car) next week. Make an offer for him if the owner has another decent QB on the roster.

OVPs: D Hester (WR Chi) Turns out catching the ball is a little different that returns. Wait for a decent week if you can then try to get something for him.

D&Rs: K Jones (RB Chi) was worth an early bench spot while waiting for things to unfold in the Chicago backfield but M Forte (RB Chi) looks for real and looks to be a solid starter. Only if he gets injured is Jones worth a look for now

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Tennessee « 24
Cincinnati 7

Deals: C Johnson (WR Cin) has a hurting shoulder. T Houshmandzadeh (WR Cin) and Ocho Cinco are both suffering from the horrendous play of the Cincinnati offense right now. It could be argued that they are in fact the problem there. My point here is if you have room on your bench, make some lowball offers to see what their owners may take. It won’t be like this forever in Cincy. C Perry could fall into this category too as he will get better over the course of the year as well.

Steals: C Palmer could be had for a song right now. I believe they have to improve and this guy is at least worth a bench spot and by the end of the season, who knows, maybe he’ll be your starter.

OVPs: L White (RB Ten) It looks like we will see a RBBC (running back by committee) with C Johnson (RB Ten) for a while but clearly Johnson will get the bulk of the load from here so get something fro White coming off a a TD while you can.

D&Rs: n/a..for now

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Green Bay « 48
Detroit 25

Deals: K Smith (RB Det) What I like is that this kid can catch so when Detroit is behind, which will be a good part of the season, he can still be involved. Look for him to have his best days still ahead

Steals: R Grant (RB GB) has had a horrible start but I would love to have him on my bench in a few weeks

OVPs: A Rogers (QB GB) Alright, I admit this guy truly is better than I thought and would be a good starter. I think though that his stock is so high right now that he will be hard pressed to play at the level of his current perceived value right now. I think you could make a favorable trade if you involved 4 or more players (ie Rogers and another player for a QB and another player)

D&Rs: R Johnson (RB Det) He is clearing on a team that is going to need to pass a lot so I just don’t see a lot of PT for him.

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Buffalo « 20
Jacksonville 16

Deals: n/a

Steals: M Jones-Drew (RB Jac) can be picked up for very little I would think. If not avoid him because he will eat a spot on the bench until Jacksonville can right their ship. If your RBs have late byes then he may make a great steal

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: I have been warning about Jacksonville and it isn’t going to get better soon as they have Indy and Pittsburgh in 2 of the next 3. I am staying away from that whole offense with one possible exception (see above)

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Oakland « 23
Kansas City 8

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: D McFadden (RB Oak) Play up the point that he will likely be the starter from here but lets face it, you can’t play KC every week and without a passing attack, well…

D&Rs: If you have any QB that was associated with this game, for god sake man, get them the hell off your team!

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Indianapolis « 18
Minnesota 15

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: Its hard to believe but I think M Harrison (WR Ind) has fallen into this bunch. He will still have days but I think he is too inconsistent to be a viable as a fill in you can count on. B Berrian falls into this category as well. What a bust he has been so far with 3 catches for 38 yards in both games combined.

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NY Giants « 41
St. Louis 13

Deals:

Steals: You can probably get any skill player on St Louis pretty easily but its a gamble. Clearly M Bulger (QB StL), T Holt (WR StL) and S Jackson (RB StL) will have some big numbers here and there the question is where and when

OVPs:

D&Rs: S Smith (WR NYG) Smith has clearly not upped his game since the Superbowl heroics. R McMichael (TE StL) has disappointed after some quality years in Miami.

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New Orleans 24
Washington « 29

Deals:

Steals: D McAllister (RB NO) and/or P Thomas (RB NO) the tough part is determining which one of these guys is the steal. R Bush (RB NO) is clearly not built to be a one man show. My money has been on Deuce but he got his first 2 carries of the year in this game. Even though he got 5 yards a pop it seems for some reason that they are going to ease him in very slowly. Time will tell

OVPs: I’m not sure if the west coast offense suddenly clicked or what but I would shop J Campbell (QB Was) just to see if there are any takers with a good offer.

D&Rs:

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San Francisco « 33
Seattle 30

Deals: I can’t figure either of these teams out. I would say grab F Gore (RB SF) if you can get a deal on him but as far as anybody else on either roster goes I would wait another week and see what bizarre turns it brings

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Atlanta 9
Tampa Bay « 24

Deals: J Galloway (WR TB) may be acquired on the cheap. The issue is that he is a deep threat and Tampa can’t find a QB who throw deeper than  20 yards. Where is Doug Williams when you need him?

Steals:

OVPs: You missed your chance with M Turner (RB Atl) last week. You could have traded him for the world. The good news is even though you have to keep him for another week, you have a solid back that you should be happy to hold on to. You’re just not going to get 200 yards every week

D&Rs: M Ryan (QB Atl) Rookie QBs are trouble

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Miami 10
Arizona « 31

Deals: K Warner (QB Ari) was a deal but the cat is out of the bag and the Cardinals have been playing good on both sides of the ball. Of course they have knocked off two juggernauts in San Fran and Miami. Their next 2 are Washington and the Jets. Can you say 4-0 in the desert?

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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San Diego 38
Denver « 39

Deals: S Young (RB Den) will end up being the 1000 yard back in Denver, he’ll just need to earn the right for a while.

Steals:

OVPs: C Chambers (WR Mia) I have to be honest, I’m not a fan. This guy seems to have all kinds of potential but has only had one 1000 yard season back in 2005. He seems to put together some big games surrounded by a lot of very mediocre ones. If you are a great guesser as to which week is the next one he is a great receiver to have otherwise he will float a goose egg in the week you needed just 3 more points to win.

D&Rs:

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New England « 19
NY Jets 10

Deals: R Moss (WR NE) You may actually be able to strike a deal for ol’ Randy. Give it time and he and M Cassel (QB NE) will build some chemistry.

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Pittsburgh « 10
Cleveland 6

Deals: B Edwards (WR Cle) and D Anderson (QB Cle) can both probably be negotiated for at this point. Both will turn it around in the weeks to come

Steals: R Mendenhall (RB Pit) can be had cheap and maybe even off the waiver wire. You are going to have to wait 4 or 5 games but it will pay off as they can’t run W Parker (RB Pit) near thirty times a game and have him last.

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Monday

Philadelphia 37
Dallas « 41

Deals: Good luck finding a deal here and these guys on either team don’t look overrated.

Steals: Some potential steals are K Curtis (WR Phi) and R Brown (WR Phi). The Philadelphia air attack has done well without them and I believe both will have plenty of opportunity for big numbers once they get healthy

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Postponed due to Hurricane Ike

Baltimore
Houston

Deals: Its hard to gleam much wisdom when we have only seen each team play once. We can tell by the second week performance of their opponents that Houston played a pretty good defense and Baltimore played a team with some serious troubles. Because of the last second nature of the announcement some people had to make some hasty moves so you may get a waiver claim for some guys like an O Daniels (TE Hou), S Slaton (RB Hou) or if you really need a WR, K Walter (WR Hou).

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

Good luck in your trades.

-Chris

The FFIWOT strategy is not a rigid one. In some years this would be a week to pick up steals and deals while in other years, like this one, this is a trading week. There just isn’t much out there in the Free Agent market right now that wasn’t identified after week one.

Week 2 just didn’t put the shine on any diamonds half buried in the field and there were no major injuries of note. The exceptions may be L. Tomlinson (RB SD) with a toe ding and J Fargas (RB Oak) with a groin injury. In the former you can expect some sporadic short term opportunities from D Sproles (RB SD) and a new starting position for D McFadden (RB Oak).

The trading strategy is focused on two areas this week. One is bye week maneuvers and the other is looking for deals and steals. The latter is the harder of the 2 because you will need a big dose of patience and room on your bench to wait on the bargain bin picks to blossom. While patience is a virtue we can all acquire, with the bye week stretch coming up, make sure you have a strategy for bye week rotation.

We will feature the deals and steal trade opportunities in a later post analyzing the week 2 games. For now, lets look at our Chinese writing for some eastern advice on our western game. The favorite Chinese character of politicians is the one for crisis which they tell us is a combination of of the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. Its probably some BS (an abbreviation of English term for a male cow with the slang term for excrement) but the bye week danger/opportunity is not so lets plan.

Bye week analysis Step One:

I love the leagues that give you the small touches that make life easier like having the bye week of each player listed right there on your roster page. Fickle is as fickle does. I love the leagues that don’t have the small touches like the bye week listed on the roster page because if you are willing to put in a little work, you will have a strategic edge over the majority of the league who will not.

Either way, print out your roster and make sure the bye week is listed next to each player. Below is a list of bye weeks for your convenience

2008 NFL Bye Week Schedule (Revised for Hurricane reshuffling)

Week 2 Houston, Baltimore
Week 4 Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, Seattle
Week 5 Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis
Week 6 Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
Week 7 Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Week 8 Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota
Week 9 Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco
Week 10 Baltimore, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

[Original bye dates struck through]

Bye week analysis Step Two:

Go week by week and see who has a bye and who from your bench, you will use to fill in for them. Next, go see what team your fill in will be playing that week. For instance, in week 7 you want to plug in C Perry (RB Cin)  for your starters you would want to rethink that plan when you saw he will be up against the Steeler D. Make a list of your weak spots and the positions you have an abundance of players at.

Bye week analysis Step Three:

Look for trades for comparable players for the problem areas on your bench. IE C Perry above would be such a problem. Ideally you would want to trade them coming off a good week so their stock is high. Remember what their value to you is right now. C Perry is your starter in week 7 against the tough Pittsburgh defense and probably good for 45 yards rushing and no TDs.

Look at the match ups for week seven and find an RB who can do better than that (adjust for the match up). The worst teams against the run right now are the Bengals, Chiefs and Lions.

Bye week analysis step Four:

Repeat a similar analysis for ONLY week 4 for each of the other teams in your league. Find the teams that are going to have to plug in a real dud or better yet, will not have a starter somewhere due to byes in week 4. Now if you find such a team with a need in an area where you have an abundance, then a trade can certainly be offered. Be sure to point out their upcoming weakness as they will probably have not worked that out yet.

If you can identify a problem and offer a solution that is mutually beneficial you can make it easy for them to say yes to a trade that they may otherwise be a little skeptical of.

For for our steals and deals trade analysis later on FFIWOT

-Chris

Wow, isn’t it funny how we are always surprised after week one by the wins and losses and how little it usually means in the big picture. The big news of course is Tom Brady (QB NE) out for the year. We’ll go game by game and analyze the fantasy impact and plug it into our strategy in out next post after we review our strategic goals at this point of the season. A good segue….

FFIWOT Strategy after week one:

Look at the big picture, keep realistic expectations and gamble based on some basic principals. Here are a couple rules that are relevant for this week.

FFIWOT Rules: Man your positions with as few players as needed except for Running Backs.

You need to learn to live with one Tight End, one defense (for this time of year), one kicker and two quarterbacks tops. If your number two and three guys at these positions are just so good you can’t drop them, then trade them. But maybe you point out that you will have no one if you top player get hurt or your defense starts stinking. FFIWOT may not be right for you unless you can get past this way of thinking.

If you have one of the elite tight ends then he is your starter and you ride his play for the year. Why have another pretty good guy to second guess yourself with, or worse, a sub par Tight end on your bench eating a roster spot. Beyond the elite top there is a deep pool of bland, “3 catches for 29 yard and 1 touchdown every 8 games” tight ends to go around. If your star gets hurt you will have to play tight end by weekly match up based on the free agents available.

Same strategy applies to kickers, quarterbacks (beyond 2 on the roster), and your defense (for this part of the season). The thing about defenses is they gel as the year goes by so I’m telling you there are some good defenses in the FA pool right now. Sometimes defenses, light on talent, benefit from their offense. Lets say Atlanta becomes a ball control and time of possession powerhouse which is not unrealistic given their running attack. Atlanta’s defense becomes a lot better just by virtue of not having to be on the field as much. The opposite could be said of Jacksonville and their offensive line problems. If they become a three and out team then that will put a lot of pressure on their defense.

Pick up as many Running Backs as you can without compromising wins by thinning out another position. You want an RB farm team of sorts so you can gamble on to three guys with the hopes (expectations really) that at least one becomes a fantasy stud. There is a good chance the other two will do nothing but when its time to move on (and not a week before then) we can dump that player and pick up our next prospect. Even if you are already set at running back when your farm stars arise, you will be prepared if one of your starters goes down to injury, as often they do. If you are lucky enough to have healthy running backs at the end of the year AND a rising star, then you will have a powerful and rare trading commodity to upgrade one of your other positions for the playoffs.

Our focus for the year is on the pool of Running Back and who may be a star four or five weeks from now. Examples of this right now would be Jonathan Stewart (RB Car) who will get more touches as the year goes on and may be found on waivers after an ok (fantasy-wise) 53 yard start.

We are looking for:

• Replacements to injured starters
• Young players who should work their way into the line ups
• Your favorite candidates of two horse races for the office of starting running back
• The back ups of injury prone players who are healthy for now

I know you are thinking, ” Yea that sounds good but everyone will be picking up these players”. You would think but it just ain’t so. Most of your opponents are undisciplined, impatient and overstaffed at the wrong positions. To be successful at this you have to have available roster spots for players who are unstartable for what could be several weeks. You must operate thin and be aware of your bye weeks.

FFIWOT Rule: For adds and drops we speculate on future value even at the cost of a short term win

Many Fantasy Football coaches loose sight of the goal which is to win the championship. Its nice to have an undefeated regular season but if your don’t win in the playoffs then so what. Sometimes you need to sacrifice a week so you can win several more weeks in the future.

FFIWOT Rule: Know your league rules!

Most leagues have pretty friendly rules for playoff entry where basically almost everyone is in and record just determines your spot in the bracket and thus who you play. In other leagues its the top four teams only, where a loss now could cost you a berth later.

FFIWOT Rule: With trades, Buy low and Sell High

We didn’t invent this saying but we live by it as a rule. You have to be willing to make some bad calls and live with them. You have to be patient and most importantly unemotional.

How can you possibly trade Willing Parker (RB PIT) right now when he is on a pace to to run for 2208 yard and 48 rushing touchdowns! That’s what your emotional self says. Your logical self says because he will do neither is why you would consider trading him right now while his stock is at it’s peak. You look at the fact that while Parker will no doubt have a good year, his carries will eventually decrease as Rashard Mendenhall’s (RB PIT) go up. Sure he had a subpar outing in the same game Parker blew it up but maybe Jacksonville is better suited to stop his style of running. Maybe it’s a bad idea to trade Parker, depends on you specific circumstance. The point is, if you were even going to entertain the thought, right now, today is the time to do it.

Today you should be printing out your league rosters and making trade offers like mad in search of the deals and steals that emotional, reactionary fellow coaches present.

Look for our game by game analysis with fantasy impact, later today

-Chris

Wednesday: Make your trade offers today.

Review: Your trade strategy should revolve around multi-player trades for two reasons:

1) With bye week at hand you need to clear some space on your bench or else you will end up dropping a guy you would rather keep or accept a zero on a slot where your starter is on a bye. Its better to trade and get some value now than drop them and get nothing later.

2) Chances are you you have a couple guys at RB and a couple guys at WR on your bench that could break out and then again could be a bust. An example in this category might be rookie Calvin Johnson for Detroit. Perhaps you have some under performing veterans like Fred Taylor or dark horses hampered by injury like Vernand Morency. Its better to bundle these guys and upgrade one position than to keep them all and never win a game for having them.

What you want to do is find their needs and give perceived value. Print out a roster grid of your league and note the following in different colors:

1) Highlight all players with a bye
2) Highlight injured players
3) Highlight good players coming off a poor performance or having a slow start.
4) Highlight average players on your own roster coming off a big week

Ones and two’s identify needs and therefore opportunities for a trade. Threes identify players to trade for and fours players to trade. You are basically identifying an ideal market and then buying low and selling high.

Here are some players that fall into category three that would be worth trading for for their upside later in the year:

Alexander, Shaun RB SEA

Johnson, Larry RB KC

Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

Ward, Hines WR PIT

Harrison, Marvin WR IND

Walker, Javon WR DEN

Moss, Santana WR WAS

-Chris

Wednesdays are a good day to send trades once the waiver wire has sorted itself out. Make sure you look to sort through the players that were dropped. A lot of times owners will set their waiver claims on Saturday and not repeal them when Sunday proves the guy only had a bad first week. I saw Jericho Crotchery get dropped in one of my leagues this way.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

Quarterbacks:

Schaub, Matt QB HOU: Trade him now before he settles into a midrange QB

Green, Trent QB MIA: He may even be available to just pick up but if your QB has a late bye, that gives you a few weeks to see if he develops into a decent #2. Miami’s defense is not what it once was so that means more throwing yardage.

Leftwich, Byron QB ATL: Everyone will be on this one but if you can get him cheap he may turn into a decent #2

Running Backs:

Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC: A slow start could mean a cheap acquisition

Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG: People get impatient with early injuries so there is a chance you can get him pretty cheap

Benson, Cedric RB CHI: When he hits 100, sell! He had 101 yards this week

McAllister, Deuce RB NO: A lot of times, when you see a team in a funk, good coaches will simplify things and go back to basics. I predict Sean Payton will look to re-establish the run game and that means good things for Deuce. He will probably be a good bargain right now.

Jordan, LaMont RB OAK: I still say sell now because he will not be this valuable all year.
Jones, Kevin RB DET: Its hard to stay patient. Look for him to have a shaky start coming off of his injury and you may get him pretty cheaply

Morency, Vernand RB GB: I’m still talking this guy up. I think he is a great pick up and you should be able get him pretty cheaply.

Wide Receivers:

Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI: Numbers are low for him…for now, so you may get a bargain
Boldin, Anquan WR ARI: See Larry Fitzgerald

Ward, Hines WR PIT: Numbers are lower for him…for now, so you may get a bargain

Jackson, Vincent WR SD: This guy will get better and hotter as the season progresses

Horn, Joe WR ATL: Horn is a worthy gamble. You can probably get him cheaply. He seemed crushed by the whole Vick situation and never had a chemistry with Harrington. If he finds a friend in Leftwich, watch out! This is my gamble trade of the week

Jennings, Greg WR GB: Impatience can play in your favor as his injury lingers

Furrey, Mike WR DET: A slower start means a good trade for you

Jones, James WR GB: Seems to be this years Greg Jennings. May remain a Favre favorite.

Jones, Jacoby WR HOU: Get him before this weekend and watch. With Johnson out his week this will be his chance to shine or fade.

Jurevicius, Joe WR CLE: Sell….NOW

Northcutt, Dennis WR JAC: See Joe Jurevicius

As they say: Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is trend

Keep you eyes on these guys who are all a steal if you want to take the chance:

Evans, Lee WR BUF: He is a streak guy so maybe a strong finish

Brown, Reggie WR PHI: This is your shot to be the goto guy

Stallworth, Donte’ WR NE: Boy, Philly needs him back

-Chris

Going forward, I’ll assume that your waiver wire opens up on Tuesday mornings. Adjust these post appropriately if you are in a league with a different schedule. I like to make my trade offers on Wednesdays so I can see who went where and have had time to analyze the weekends events.

You know the old adage: Buy low and sell high.

No particular order below

High value stocks…Their value only goes down from here:

• Antwan Randle El WR (Wash) : Santana Moss will not have an off week every week
• Lamont Jordan RB (Oak): Its not that he is a bad runner, just be honest about how many games the Raiders will be in where he is going to get a lot of touches
• Ben Roethlisberger QB (Pit): They don’t play Cleveland every week and there are many Pittsburgh fans out there that will pay a premium to have him on their roster. If you see a team named the Westport Steelers and they have TO and weak QB’s….well what are you waiting for?
• Ronald Curry WR (Oak): Is this a break out or just a good first game? I’m guessing the later.
• Plaxico Burress WR (NYG): Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan but honestly, he will never again this season be worth what he is right now. This is assuming Manning is Ok as he seems to be at the time of this writing.
• Randy Moss WR (NE): He is Google after the IPO. A lot of people held Google and have made a lot of money. You make the call.

Low Value stocks…Buy cheap while you can

• Eli Manning QB (NYG): He’s hurt so his value will be lower but if you can wait it out, it looks like the G-men are going to have to stay competitive on his arm.
• Lee Evans WR (Buf): 5 yards…He may be at garage sale prices now, grab him
• Reggie Brown WR (Phi): His stock can’t get much lower and yet the upside is everyone thinks he can become a star in Philly but he has to step up and take his opportunity…will he?
• TO WR (Dal): Ok, he is not exactly going to be cheap but this may be the cheapest he will be all season, a season which should be huge for him with the Terry Glenn situation.
• Vince Young QB (Ten): A sophomore slump or an off game? If he is a bargain, I would grab him.
• Dante` Stallworth WR (NE): Here is one of the bargains of the week. Look for huge numbers opposite of Moss assuming they give him some PT. Wes Welker???
• Brandon Jacobs RB (NYG): If you can keep him on the bench for a few weeks you should be able to get him for a steal now to have a mid season monster
• Larry Johnson RB (KC): If you have a nervous Nellie owner, you may get a good deal here.
• Mike Furrey WR (Det): A one year wonder or bad fist game? I would be happy to trade Ronald Curry for Furrey straight up but of course I would try and get more.
• Anthony Gonzalez WR (Ind): I called this guy overvalued before the season begun. You may be able to get him for a bargain basement price. He may take until mid season but should be worth the wait
• Santana Moss WR (Wash): See Antwaan Randle El

Let me know if I missed a few but this should be enough to get some offers out there.

-Chris

Most fantasy setups now allow some sort of grid view of your league with the players each team has. Print that out and look position by position, team by team and look for weaknesses and overages. If a guy has Larry Johnson, Ron Dayne and Kevin Jones as his three RB’s then he has a need there.

If another guy has Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, Frank Gore and Jerious Norwood then there is some horsepower sitting on his bench you should be able to talk him out of for a fair trade. This guy has an overage at RB.

Look to see how you can fill the need or give him something of value for his overage. Look to provide them value first and then make sure it fits your needs and offer the trade. At this point you are looking to dump extra Kickers, Tight Ends and Defenses of value and trying to fix any bye problems you have identified.

Now identifying what kind of traders you have in your league is tricky at this point and you may only find something out by initiating your first trade offer. The only type you may have identified at this point is the “next best thing” trader. This is the guy who looks to dump a quality player because his numbers were off in the 2 quarters he played in the 3rd preseason game. This is the guy who has already made about 25 moves before the first real kickoff of the season.

This is the guy you need to be trading with. If he makes you an offer, counter it. If he hasn’t, make him one and keep change the offer until he accepts it. He will, trust me, he will.

-Chris