Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

Tuesday…. This week is a trading week as there is not much on the waiver wire in most leagues. Below is a list of deals and steals to trade for, and a list of OVPs (overly valued players) to trade away while their perceived value is high. Lastly are the D&Rs (dump and run) which are people taking up valuable real estate on your bench.

Keep in mind that you will NOT see the biggest names in football below as they do not fit into the three categories. Most fit into the category: Players no one in their right mind will trade away.

Week 2

Sunday

Chicago 17
Carolina « 20

Deals: n/a

Steals: J Delhomme (QB Car) had a very K Orton (QB Chi) like day against the Bears D. He gets his top receiver back in S Smith (WR Car) next week. Make an offer for him if the owner has another decent QB on the roster.

OVPs: D Hester (WR Chi) Turns out catching the ball is a little different that returns. Wait for a decent week if you can then try to get something for him.

D&Rs: K Jones (RB Chi) was worth an early bench spot while waiting for things to unfold in the Chicago backfield but M Forte (RB Chi) looks for real and looks to be a solid starter. Only if he gets injured is Jones worth a look for now

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Tennessee « 24
Cincinnati 7

Deals: C Johnson (WR Cin) has a hurting shoulder. T Houshmandzadeh (WR Cin) and Ocho Cinco are both suffering from the horrendous play of the Cincinnati offense right now. It could be argued that they are in fact the problem there. My point here is if you have room on your bench, make some lowball offers to see what their owners may take. It won’t be like this forever in Cincy. C Perry could fall into this category too as he will get better over the course of the year as well.

Steals: C Palmer could be had for a song right now. I believe they have to improve and this guy is at least worth a bench spot and by the end of the season, who knows, maybe he’ll be your starter.

OVPs: L White (RB Ten) It looks like we will see a RBBC (running back by committee) with C Johnson (RB Ten) for a while but clearly Johnson will get the bulk of the load from here so get something fro White coming off a a TD while you can.

D&Rs: n/a..for now

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Green Bay « 48
Detroit 25

Deals: K Smith (RB Det) What I like is that this kid can catch so when Detroit is behind, which will be a good part of the season, he can still be involved. Look for him to have his best days still ahead

Steals: R Grant (RB GB) has had a horrible start but I would love to have him on my bench in a few weeks

OVPs: A Rogers (QB GB) Alright, I admit this guy truly is better than I thought and would be a good starter. I think though that his stock is so high right now that he will be hard pressed to play at the level of his current perceived value right now. I think you could make a favorable trade if you involved 4 or more players (ie Rogers and another player for a QB and another player)

D&Rs: R Johnson (RB Det) He is clearing on a team that is going to need to pass a lot so I just don’t see a lot of PT for him.

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Buffalo « 20
Jacksonville 16

Deals: n/a

Steals: M Jones-Drew (RB Jac) can be picked up for very little I would think. If not avoid him because he will eat a spot on the bench until Jacksonville can right their ship. If your RBs have late byes then he may make a great steal

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: I have been warning about Jacksonville and it isn’t going to get better soon as they have Indy and Pittsburgh in 2 of the next 3. I am staying away from that whole offense with one possible exception (see above)

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Oakland « 23
Kansas City 8

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: D McFadden (RB Oak) Play up the point that he will likely be the starter from here but lets face it, you can’t play KC every week and without a passing attack, well…

D&Rs: If you have any QB that was associated with this game, for god sake man, get them the hell off your team!

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Indianapolis « 18
Minnesota 15

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: Its hard to believe but I think M Harrison (WR Ind) has fallen into this bunch. He will still have days but I think he is too inconsistent to be a viable as a fill in you can count on. B Berrian falls into this category as well. What a bust he has been so far with 3 catches for 38 yards in both games combined.

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NY Giants « 41
St. Louis 13

Deals:

Steals: You can probably get any skill player on St Louis pretty easily but its a gamble. Clearly M Bulger (QB StL), T Holt (WR StL) and S Jackson (RB StL) will have some big numbers here and there the question is where and when

OVPs:

D&Rs: S Smith (WR NYG) Smith has clearly not upped his game since the Superbowl heroics. R McMichael (TE StL) has disappointed after some quality years in Miami.

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New Orleans 24
Washington « 29

Deals:

Steals: D McAllister (RB NO) and/or P Thomas (RB NO) the tough part is determining which one of these guys is the steal. R Bush (RB NO) is clearly not built to be a one man show. My money has been on Deuce but he got his first 2 carries of the year in this game. Even though he got 5 yards a pop it seems for some reason that they are going to ease him in very slowly. Time will tell

OVPs: I’m not sure if the west coast offense suddenly clicked or what but I would shop J Campbell (QB Was) just to see if there are any takers with a good offer.

D&Rs:

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San Francisco « 33
Seattle 30

Deals: I can’t figure either of these teams out. I would say grab F Gore (RB SF) if you can get a deal on him but as far as anybody else on either roster goes I would wait another week and see what bizarre turns it brings

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Atlanta 9
Tampa Bay « 24

Deals: J Galloway (WR TB) may be acquired on the cheap. The issue is that he is a deep threat and Tampa can’t find a QB who throw deeper than  20 yards. Where is Doug Williams when you need him?

Steals:

OVPs: You missed your chance with M Turner (RB Atl) last week. You could have traded him for the world. The good news is even though you have to keep him for another week, you have a solid back that you should be happy to hold on to. You’re just not going to get 200 yards every week

D&Rs: M Ryan (QB Atl) Rookie QBs are trouble

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Miami 10
Arizona « 31

Deals: K Warner (QB Ari) was a deal but the cat is out of the bag and the Cardinals have been playing good on both sides of the ball. Of course they have knocked off two juggernauts in San Fran and Miami. Their next 2 are Washington and the Jets. Can you say 4-0 in the desert?

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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San Diego 38
Denver « 39

Deals: S Young (RB Den) will end up being the 1000 yard back in Denver, he’ll just need to earn the right for a while.

Steals:

OVPs: C Chambers (WR Mia) I have to be honest, I’m not a fan. This guy seems to have all kinds of potential but has only had one 1000 yard season back in 2005. He seems to put together some big games surrounded by a lot of very mediocre ones. If you are a great guesser as to which week is the next one he is a great receiver to have otherwise he will float a goose egg in the week you needed just 3 more points to win.

D&Rs:

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New England « 19
NY Jets 10

Deals: R Moss (WR NE) You may actually be able to strike a deal for ol’ Randy. Give it time and he and M Cassel (QB NE) will build some chemistry.

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Pittsburgh « 10
Cleveland 6

Deals: B Edwards (WR Cle) and D Anderson (QB Cle) can both probably be negotiated for at this point. Both will turn it around in the weeks to come

Steals: R Mendenhall (RB Pit) can be had cheap and maybe even off the waiver wire. You are going to have to wait 4 or 5 games but it will pay off as they can’t run W Parker (RB Pit) near thirty times a game and have him last.

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Monday

Philadelphia 37
Dallas « 41

Deals: Good luck finding a deal here and these guys on either team don’t look overrated.

Steals: Some potential steals are K Curtis (WR Phi) and R Brown (WR Phi). The Philadelphia air attack has done well without them and I believe both will have plenty of opportunity for big numbers once they get healthy

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Postponed due to Hurricane Ike

Baltimore
Houston

Deals: Its hard to gleam much wisdom when we have only seen each team play once. We can tell by the second week performance of their opponents that Houston played a pretty good defense and Baltimore played a team with some serious troubles. Because of the last second nature of the announcement some people had to make some hasty moves so you may get a waiver claim for some guys like an O Daniels (TE Hou), S Slaton (RB Hou) or if you really need a WR, K Walter (WR Hou).

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

Good luck in your trades.

-Chris

The FFIWOT strategy is not a rigid one. In some years this would be a week to pick up steals and deals while in other years, like this one, this is a trading week. There just isn’t much out there in the Free Agent market right now that wasn’t identified after week one.

Week 2 just didn’t put the shine on any diamonds half buried in the field and there were no major injuries of note. The exceptions may be L. Tomlinson (RB SD) with a toe ding and J Fargas (RB Oak) with a groin injury. In the former you can expect some sporadic short term opportunities from D Sproles (RB SD) and a new starting position for D McFadden (RB Oak).

The trading strategy is focused on two areas this week. One is bye week maneuvers and the other is looking for deals and steals. The latter is the harder of the 2 because you will need a big dose of patience and room on your bench to wait on the bargain bin picks to blossom. While patience is a virtue we can all acquire, with the bye week stretch coming up, make sure you have a strategy for bye week rotation.

We will feature the deals and steal trade opportunities in a later post analyzing the week 2 games. For now, lets look at our Chinese writing for some eastern advice on our western game. The favorite Chinese character of politicians is the one for crisis which they tell us is a combination of of the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. Its probably some BS (an abbreviation of English term for a male cow with the slang term for excrement) but the bye week danger/opportunity is not so lets plan.

Bye week analysis Step One:

I love the leagues that give you the small touches that make life easier like having the bye week of each player listed right there on your roster page. Fickle is as fickle does. I love the leagues that don’t have the small touches like the bye week listed on the roster page because if you are willing to put in a little work, you will have a strategic edge over the majority of the league who will not.

Either way, print out your roster and make sure the bye week is listed next to each player. Below is a list of bye weeks for your convenience

2008 NFL Bye Week Schedule (Revised for Hurricane reshuffling)

Week 2 Houston, Baltimore
Week 4 Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, Seattle
Week 5 Cleveland, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis
Week 6 Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
Week 7 Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Week 8 Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota
Week 9 Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco
Week 10 Baltimore, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

[Original bye dates struck through]

Bye week analysis Step Two:

Go week by week and see who has a bye and who from your bench, you will use to fill in for them. Next, go see what team your fill in will be playing that week. For instance, in week 7 you want to plug in C Perry (RB Cin)  for your starters you would want to rethink that plan when you saw he will be up against the Steeler D. Make a list of your weak spots and the positions you have an abundance of players at.

Bye week analysis Step Three:

Look for trades for comparable players for the problem areas on your bench. IE C Perry above would be such a problem. Ideally you would want to trade them coming off a good week so their stock is high. Remember what their value to you is right now. C Perry is your starter in week 7 against the tough Pittsburgh defense and probably good for 45 yards rushing and no TDs.

Look at the match ups for week seven and find an RB who can do better than that (adjust for the match up). The worst teams against the run right now are the Bengals, Chiefs and Lions.

Bye week analysis step Four:

Repeat a similar analysis for ONLY week 4 for each of the other teams in your league. Find the teams that are going to have to plug in a real dud or better yet, will not have a starter somewhere due to byes in week 4. Now if you find such a team with a need in an area where you have an abundance, then a trade can certainly be offered. Be sure to point out their upcoming weakness as they will probably have not worked that out yet.

If you can identify a problem and offer a solution that is mutually beneficial you can make it easy for them to say yes to a trade that they may otherwise be a little skeptical of.

For for our steals and deals trade analysis later on FFIWOT

-Chris