Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

Tuesday…. This week is a trading week as there is not much on the waiver wire in most leagues. Below is a list of deals and steals to trade for, and a list of OVPs (overly valued players) to trade away while their perceived value is high. Lastly are the D&Rs (dump and run) which are people taking up valuable real estate on your bench.

Keep in mind that you will NOT see the biggest names in football below as they do not fit into the three categories. Most fit into the category: Players no one in their right mind will trade away.

Week 2

Sunday

Chicago 17
Carolina « 20

Deals: n/a

Steals: J Delhomme (QB Car) had a very K Orton (QB Chi) like day against the Bears D. He gets his top receiver back in S Smith (WR Car) next week. Make an offer for him if the owner has another decent QB on the roster.

OVPs: D Hester (WR Chi) Turns out catching the ball is a little different that returns. Wait for a decent week if you can then try to get something for him.

D&Rs: K Jones (RB Chi) was worth an early bench spot while waiting for things to unfold in the Chicago backfield but M Forte (RB Chi) looks for real and looks to be a solid starter. Only if he gets injured is Jones worth a look for now

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Tennessee « 24
Cincinnati 7

Deals: C Johnson (WR Cin) has a hurting shoulder. T Houshmandzadeh (WR Cin) and Ocho Cinco are both suffering from the horrendous play of the Cincinnati offense right now. It could be argued that they are in fact the problem there. My point here is if you have room on your bench, make some lowball offers to see what their owners may take. It won’t be like this forever in Cincy. C Perry could fall into this category too as he will get better over the course of the year as well.

Steals: C Palmer could be had for a song right now. I believe they have to improve and this guy is at least worth a bench spot and by the end of the season, who knows, maybe he’ll be your starter.

OVPs: L White (RB Ten) It looks like we will see a RBBC (running back by committee) with C Johnson (RB Ten) for a while but clearly Johnson will get the bulk of the load from here so get something fro White coming off a a TD while you can.

D&Rs: n/a..for now

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Green Bay « 48
Detroit 25

Deals: K Smith (RB Det) What I like is that this kid can catch so when Detroit is behind, which will be a good part of the season, he can still be involved. Look for him to have his best days still ahead

Steals: R Grant (RB GB) has had a horrible start but I would love to have him on my bench in a few weeks

OVPs: A Rogers (QB GB) Alright, I admit this guy truly is better than I thought and would be a good starter. I think though that his stock is so high right now that he will be hard pressed to play at the level of his current perceived value right now. I think you could make a favorable trade if you involved 4 or more players (ie Rogers and another player for a QB and another player)

D&Rs: R Johnson (RB Det) He is clearing on a team that is going to need to pass a lot so I just don’t see a lot of PT for him.

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Buffalo « 20
Jacksonville 16

Deals: n/a

Steals: M Jones-Drew (RB Jac) can be picked up for very little I would think. If not avoid him because he will eat a spot on the bench until Jacksonville can right their ship. If your RBs have late byes then he may make a great steal

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: I have been warning about Jacksonville and it isn’t going to get better soon as they have Indy and Pittsburgh in 2 of the next 3. I am staying away from that whole offense with one possible exception (see above)

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Oakland « 23
Kansas City 8

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: D McFadden (RB Oak) Play up the point that he will likely be the starter from here but lets face it, you can’t play KC every week and without a passing attack, well…

D&Rs: If you have any QB that was associated with this game, for god sake man, get them the hell off your team!

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Indianapolis « 18
Minnesota 15

Deals: n/a

Steals: n/a

OVPs: n/a

D&Rs: Its hard to believe but I think M Harrison (WR Ind) has fallen into this bunch. He will still have days but I think he is too inconsistent to be a viable as a fill in you can count on. B Berrian falls into this category as well. What a bust he has been so far with 3 catches for 38 yards in both games combined.

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NY Giants « 41
St. Louis 13

Deals:

Steals: You can probably get any skill player on St Louis pretty easily but its a gamble. Clearly M Bulger (QB StL), T Holt (WR StL) and S Jackson (RB StL) will have some big numbers here and there the question is where and when

OVPs:

D&Rs: S Smith (WR NYG) Smith has clearly not upped his game since the Superbowl heroics. R McMichael (TE StL) has disappointed after some quality years in Miami.

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New Orleans 24
Washington « 29

Deals:

Steals: D McAllister (RB NO) and/or P Thomas (RB NO) the tough part is determining which one of these guys is the steal. R Bush (RB NO) is clearly not built to be a one man show. My money has been on Deuce but he got his first 2 carries of the year in this game. Even though he got 5 yards a pop it seems for some reason that they are going to ease him in very slowly. Time will tell

OVPs: I’m not sure if the west coast offense suddenly clicked or what but I would shop J Campbell (QB Was) just to see if there are any takers with a good offer.

D&Rs:

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San Francisco « 33
Seattle 30

Deals: I can’t figure either of these teams out. I would say grab F Gore (RB SF) if you can get a deal on him but as far as anybody else on either roster goes I would wait another week and see what bizarre turns it brings

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Atlanta 9
Tampa Bay « 24

Deals: J Galloway (WR TB) may be acquired on the cheap. The issue is that he is a deep threat and Tampa can’t find a QB who throw deeper than  20 yards. Where is Doug Williams when you need him?

Steals:

OVPs: You missed your chance with M Turner (RB Atl) last week. You could have traded him for the world. The good news is even though you have to keep him for another week, you have a solid back that you should be happy to hold on to. You’re just not going to get 200 yards every week

D&Rs: M Ryan (QB Atl) Rookie QBs are trouble

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Miami 10
Arizona « 31

Deals: K Warner (QB Ari) was a deal but the cat is out of the bag and the Cardinals have been playing good on both sides of the ball. Of course they have knocked off two juggernauts in San Fran and Miami. Their next 2 are Washington and the Jets. Can you say 4-0 in the desert?

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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San Diego 38
Denver « 39

Deals: S Young (RB Den) will end up being the 1000 yard back in Denver, he’ll just need to earn the right for a while.

Steals:

OVPs: C Chambers (WR Mia) I have to be honest, I’m not a fan. This guy seems to have all kinds of potential but has only had one 1000 yard season back in 2005. He seems to put together some big games surrounded by a lot of very mediocre ones. If you are a great guesser as to which week is the next one he is a great receiver to have otherwise he will float a goose egg in the week you needed just 3 more points to win.

D&Rs:

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New England « 19
NY Jets 10

Deals: R Moss (WR NE) You may actually be able to strike a deal for ol’ Randy. Give it time and he and M Cassel (QB NE) will build some chemistry.

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Pittsburgh « 10
Cleveland 6

Deals: B Edwards (WR Cle) and D Anderson (QB Cle) can both probably be negotiated for at this point. Both will turn it around in the weeks to come

Steals: R Mendenhall (RB Pit) can be had cheap and maybe even off the waiver wire. You are going to have to wait 4 or 5 games but it will pay off as they can’t run W Parker (RB Pit) near thirty times a game and have him last.

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Monday

Philadelphia 37
Dallas « 41

Deals: Good luck finding a deal here and these guys on either team don’t look overrated.

Steals: Some potential steals are K Curtis (WR Phi) and R Brown (WR Phi). The Philadelphia air attack has done well without them and I believe both will have plenty of opportunity for big numbers once they get healthy

OVPs:

D&Rs:

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Postponed due to Hurricane Ike

Baltimore
Houston

Deals: Its hard to gleam much wisdom when we have only seen each team play once. We can tell by the second week performance of their opponents that Houston played a pretty good defense and Baltimore played a team with some serious troubles. Because of the last second nature of the announcement some people had to make some hasty moves so you may get a waiver claim for some guys like an O Daniels (TE Hou), S Slaton (RB Hou) or if you really need a WR, K Walter (WR Hou).

Steals:

OVPs:

D&Rs:

Good luck in your trades.

-Chris

Its been a long day of offering many, many trades and keeping an eye for dropped gold. After the first week you get a lot of emotional and reactionary owners dropping prime time players because they didn’t have a spectacular first game. On the flip side, the people act like the big performance put on by the players with the top stats this week will have numbers like that every week. We’re going to go game by game and look at how the players involved could be over or undervalued by these folks.

Unless you are in a league with your buddies where you know their playing style and trading styles you should be making as many offers as feasible around your league. For instance, I have Mark Clayton (WR Bal) on one of my teams. He had decent number because of a reverse where he ran for 42 yards and scored. Without that he had 3 catches for 21 yards. He is not going to score on a reverse every week and with a rookie QB I think he will have lots of 3 for 21 weeks. I am offering him to everyone I can. Obviously I’m not going to get a TO but I can maybe get a Minnesota Vikings defense or he can be bundled into a four player trade (2 for 2).

Remember, the worst they can do is say no.

Also, keep your eyes open on the waiver wire. People see one bad week and drop a guy who just needs a few weeks to get going.

Thursday Night Game

Giants        16
Redskins    7

There were no big surprises from a fantasy perspective here as the big time players performed withing their expected ranges. One area of surprise was at the tight end position on both teams. Cooley (TE Was) getting 1 catch for 7 yards had better be an aberration or Bush won’t be the only lame duck in DC.  On the other side of the coin, with the departure of Jeremy Shockey (TE NO) left an opening for Kevin Boss (TE NYG) who stepped in an recorded a goose egg. I may be acting like one of those reactionaries I mention above but their are too many middle of the pack tight end available to wait for this guy to record a catch. There, he should thank me as I have just guaranteed him a 10 for 130 yard day and 2 TDs.

FFIWOT: Make a low ball offer for Cooley

Sunday Games

Lions            21
Falcons        34

Wow. The Falcons have two big backs and a Rookie who showed some poise in week one. I’m not rushing out to sign the Atlanta WR corp though because he is a rookie and will have some bad days. Look for defenses to key on the run and force Ryan (QB Atl) to try and beat them. I’m holding on to Turner even though I know this was probably his best game of the season. If I were going to trade him, this would be the week.

FFIWOT: Trade Michael Jenkins (WR Atl) while the stock is fairly high.

Chiefs        10
Patriots      17

KC’s folks performed as expected. Obviously with Brady (QB NE) out for the year it totally changes the complexion of the Patriots. R Moss (WR NE) will still get his to a lesser degree but still good. Look for this to become an offensively conservative team that relies on defense.

FFIWOT: Trade W Welker (WR NE) ASAP while last years numbers still sway some influence. Get Maroney (RB NE) or Morris (RB NE) if you can.
Seahawks     10
Bills              34

Wow again. I didn’t watch this game so I’m not sure if the Bills improved that much or Seattle, always the schizophrenic, just played bad.

FFIWOT: Keep an eye on these teams for now
Bengals         10
Ravens          17

Speaking of schizophrenic teams… The Ravens have their usual good D.

FFIWOT: Sell now any Ravens you have. Buy now any Bengals you can get for a bargain

Texans         17
Steelers        38

I guess Willie Parker (RB Pit) is not ready to give up the running back spotlight just yet.

FFIWOT: If you have space on your bench and you are patient and the force is strong in you then pick up R Mendenhall (RB Pit) dirt cheap and wait for mid season dividends.
Jaguars       10
Titans         17

Chris Johnson (RB Ten) looks like the real deal. The Jags are in a real bind. They were thin on the O line and then managed to loose their two starting Guards for the year. They just signed a guard a few hours ago but they are going to be struggling for a while as their offense sputtered on Sunday

Get what you can for L White (RB Ten) now while you can. If you have Jag skill players your choice is to be patient for a few (or several) weeks while they patch together a line and get them working well together. Meanwhile the production of the offense will be down.

FFIWOT: Consider dropping (trade if you can) Fred Taylor (RB Jac). Don’t go rushing to pick up Matt Jones (WR Jac) as he will surely disappoint as he always does. Bench Garrard (QB Jac) and Jones-Drew (RB Jac) as they will be productive by mid season or before. If you have a spot on your bench, pick up Jones-Drew.
Rams            3
Eagles          38

What happens when team A has their best game of the year the same week team B has their worst. See boxscore. The Eagles are a good team and the Rams a bad one but the one is not that good and the other is not that bad

FFIWOT: Don’t go picking up Eagles because of one game. You should be selling Eagles and buying Rams
Cowboys       28
Browns          10

The Cowboys looked pretty damn good. Look for Cleveland to rebound and be better than this.

FFIWOT: Pick up Browns when you can get them cheap. I’m not sure many people are giving up on Braylon Edwards (WR Cle) just yet but you never know.
Jets              20
Dolphins     14

Ok, Favre won his first one out of the gate. I love Bret but sell him if you got him and have another good QB. They beat the Dolphins for god sake, not the Giants.

FFIWOT: Sell Favre. Pick up L Coles (WR NYJ) really cheap.
Buccaneers     20
Saints             24

No Fantasy surprises here from the guys who played

FFIWOT: Deuce McAllister rode the pine and is available in seemingly every league in the world. This guy is worth a spot on your bench. He had a great preseason and has a solid track record. Pick him up and wait.

Panthers      26
Chargers     24

Exciting game!

FFIWOT: Pick up J Stewart (RB Car) if he is available and if you need a tight end, make a waiver claim for D Rosario (TE Car)
Bears            29
Colts            13

Peyton looked a little sluggish. M Forte (RB Chi) looked great.

FFIWOT: If K Jones (RB Chi) is available and you have a bench spot, he could make a decent bye week fill in depending on who the Bears are playing.

Monday Night Games

Vikings        19
Packers        24

Another good game. Begin the A Rodgers Era. T Jackson (QB Min) still looks like a rookie to me and that hurts his receiving squad too. Stay away from them.

FFIWOT: Sell Rodgers (QB GB) now while his stock is miles high. I see only one place he can go from here. Wait for B Berrian to have a decent game and pawn him off for what you can get.
Broncos      41
Raiders       14

An old friend of mine who I haven’t talked to in years is a lifelong Raider fan and I just felt sad for him on Monday.I have heard of running back by committee referring to 2 backs sharing the load. Denver has running back by the entire damn Congress. One primary will surely emerge.

FFIWOT: Sell E Royal (WR Den). He is obviously a very good player but his numbers have to come down when B Marshall (WR Den) returns. If you have a spot, try and get A Hall (RB Den) in case he emerges to the top of the Denver RB heap.

-Chris

It’s time to raid the waiver wire for the guys who will win it on Sunday

Quarterbacks:

Anderson, Derek QB CLE: If you were a swami and had this guy as your QB on Sunday then I bow to your supreme knowledge but otherwise, I think this is more a situation where all the planets aligned rather than Payton’s second coming

Schaub, Matt QB HOU: Living in Atlanta I saw what this guy could do but I had no faith in the rest of the Texans. I’m coming around real fast.

Garrard, David QB JAC: I still think this guy is at best a decent number 2

Campbell, Jason QB WAS: Lots of potential but I wouldn’t gamble a spot on him until next year

Huard, Damon QB KC: Show Me anything…Take a chance, your a starter now

McNabb, Donovan QB PHI: Will someone please explain to me why the management in Philly refuses to McNabb someone to throw the damn ball to? I understand TO but why let Dante Stallworth go when he had something going. He isn’t getting the ball in NE and he knows the Eagle system, call the Patriots and get him back today!

McCown, Josh QB OAK: I’m not convinced yet. Maybe one more game.

Running Backs

Lewis, Jamal RB CLE: If you got him, trade him. If you can pick him up for free, do and then trade him. Cleveland won’t score 51 points over the next 3 weeks combined.

Morris, Sammy RB NE: Next week it could be Malroney getting the FPs. RBBC is a death knell to fantasy owner. Note: RBBC (Running Back By Committee)

Ward, Derrick RB NYG: He will put up some decent points filling in for Jacobs but with that last into the bye stretch of the season? I’m concerned that a RBBC situation may break out when Jacobs returns. If I could get something for Jacobs I would but seeing as his stock is low I would recommend the wait and hope he establishes himself as the starter

White, LenDale RB TEN: RBBC sucks. Who will be the FP winner next week?

Wynn, DeShawn RB GB: My money is still on Morency. Get something for Wynn now if you can and pick up Morency if he is available. Patience is a virtue.

-Chris

I love this part of the week. Now is when you can pick up guys dropped by players looking for the next best thing. Little did they know, you would have actually considered a trade but they devalued their player after one game and dropped them.

A lot of owners get distracted with stuff like ….actually having a life during this part of the week so the competition is usually lighter than on Tuesdays. It’s like being Santa landing you sleigh on the island of misfit toys. A receiver with stones for hands?… Well maybe not the whole misfit toy thing but you get the idea.

If you think I’m exaggerating what people let slip away, here is a sampling from the 3 leagues I participate in:

Moss, Santana WR WAS - Dropped
Horn, Joe WR ATL - Dropped
Dolphins, DST DST MIA - Dropped
released G. Jennings (GB-WR)
released Miami (Mia-DST)
released N. Rackers (Ari-PK)
Vincent Jackson (SD - WR) Drop

Now granted, none of these players/defenses are superstar caliber but for a lot of people the Dolphins would be an upgrade at defense. Joe Horn, Vincent Jackson and Greg Jennings are risky but if you have a slot open… Neil Rackers would certainly be an upgrade at kicker form many.

The point here is people aren’t going to drop a lot of quality QB’s or RB’s on Thursdays you can certainly look to upgrade your Defense, Kicker and maybe even Tight End as people have to drop something to make room for their gambles.

With the next breakout receiver usually being a gamble, here is where you can pick up a guy, who with patience, could be the next Marques Colston.

-Chris

Wow, great finishes last night to sub par games. Bear with me quickly here as I whine like a little girly boy for a minute. Don’t you hate when this happens. My Yahoo team scored the most points that I can remember it scoring in a long while and if fact have 21 more points than the next closest guy behind me and end up being 0-1. I lost 134-131 biting my nails as I only needed 4 more points from Frank Gore who rattled off an early TD and then just disappeared.

Okay, enough of that. Now for a rundown of the guys who straddle the line on the bell curve of players. The guys what are available and a good pick up and the guys who sound good in theory.

Warrick Dunn RB (TB): He may not be Dunn yet. The Falcon are not going to win many and the ones they do win will probably not be on Harrington’s arm unless they are dink passes to Dunn

DeShaun Foster RB (Car): Decent numbers for opening day. Stay away if you don’t have him, trade him while his stock is high if you do. This is the dreaded running back by committee syndrome

Jamaal Lewis RB (Cle): Apparently Lewis and the Browns did not red the memo that this guy was washed up before last year started.

Brady Quinn QB (Cle): Speaking of the Browns. If you need a Quarterback then look for a Trent Green or a David Garrard but for god sake, don’t pick up a rookie QB. Never, never, never pick up a rookie QB, especially if he plays for the Browns. This guy may be exciting and even fun to watch but neither of those things score fantasy points in the leagues I participate in.

Jacoby Jones WR (Tex): I’ll be honest and saw his name around the internet and did a little digging. He’s big and fast and should be a good counter weight to Andre Johnson. I’ll give a bench spot until he shows something or until the next best thing comes along.

Happy Hunting

Well, look north of this post at the header and you can see what the letters stand for. What the words mean is that you can hope the players you get in the draft get you to the championship or you can take matters into your own hands.

Lets face it, I’ve had teams that I looked at right after the draft and knew it was over before it started. I once had a team that looked perfect on paper on week one. A couple year ending injuries later that team had middle of the pack written all over it.

To me, next to winning the championship, taking a team that should come in 8th and then finishing 4th with it is the most exciting thing that can happen. Building an overachieving team is what its all about for me.

It used to be all about the trades. You know, feel out the other owners and find their weaknesses and exploit them in a favorable trade. Not necessarily always the feeble minded ones but the likes of guys who calls his team Joe’s Giants. They are always a good candidate for for a Plaxico Burress for Rudi Johnson trade.

Rules have evolved over the years and now even fair trades are shot down by co owners’ vetoes. That got really annoying and even though trades are still important, as is the draft and starter selection, they are but three of the four horseman of Fantasy success.

Waiver wire magic is the name of this game. Taking risks and picking up gold in the ground instead of the jewelry store. Studying who is available and the order of the waiver selection will not just cover your bye, it will take your team and you to the next level. Stay tuned for a for a season full of prospecting.