Fantasy Football is Won on Tuesdays

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New look and feel for the site but the same strategy applied in detail to the coming season.

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-Chris

Well, another season has gone by a d the Giants have shocked the world. Congrats to them and their fans. Until next season. See you at the combines

-Chris

Well, it’s that time of the year. If you are reading this then I’ll assume your team is still in contention for the playoffs. You should have already looked at your key match ups for the coming weeks and picked up replacements. If you didn’t or you have some injured players then for god sake, stop reading this and get your waiver claims in.

Its always great to look at what you are talking about at this point in the season and compare it to what you would have thought you’d be talking about had you predicted back in pre-season.

Who would have thought that players such as Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, and Carnell Williams, Sean Alexander, Frank Gore and Rudi Johnson would be gone or marginalized.

I think a lot of people would have expected to be talking about Travis Henry’s quest for 2000 yards.

Adrian Peterson has been a nice story but not too surprising. You want surprising, lets talk, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant, Justin Fargas, Derrick Ward and lets not forget Jamal Lewis’ comeback in Cleveland.

You can look and find this at some of this other positions as well but year in and year out it is the management of the running back position that wins championships and this constant scouting and gambling is why Fantasy Football Is Won On Tuesdays.

-Chris

Its getting down to crunch time. Hopefully you are all set at Wide Receiver and Running Back. If for some reason you haven’t been following the plan and you need a running back you have Kolby Smith in KC, Justin Fargas in Oakland, Adrian Peterson in Chicago, Anthony Thomas in Buffalo and even Fred Taylor has re-emerged in Jacksonville.

I would hope you can identify one Receiver or Running Back on your bench you can dump. Find that player, or two and pick up the best free agent defenses you can find. Too many byes and injuries make it impractical up to now but from here on in you want three defenses to choose from each week so you can identify the best match up.

Defense doesn’t seem to get it’s due in Fantasy Football but that is alright by us. You can tap into 3-10 extra points per week by picking the best match ups. Many teams will start looking at the talent on the bench which means possibly big games for even middle of the road defenses.

Even if there is no solid defense to pick up, there may be a good match up to pick. San Francisco looks good at Carolina this week.

The fantasy playoffs are closer than you think. Your opponents are not giving them any thought right now which is exactly why you should be.

You are in one of three positions about now. Dominating and cruising for the playoffs, on the bubble and fighting hard to make the playoffs or done and out.

If you are in the last category I suggest you bone up on earlier posts and join more leagues next year.

If you are fighting for your life, read through this briefly and see if you have a glaring liability that you can fix without affecting by even a point your strategy over the next few weeks as that is what you need to be focusing on.

If you are in the dominating and cruising category then its time to get to work. A classic fantasy mistake is when an owner dominates the regular season and fills the league boards up with a bunch of smack talk. Next thing you know they loose as the top seed in the first round of the playoffs because Manning sat after the first quarter and Pittsburgh’s second string defense gives up 35 because their second string offense can’t keep them off the field very long.

Don’t make this mistake. You are in the driver seat and you should use it to your advantage. Its time to look at the playoff weeks to find weaknesses and plug them up. It varies by league but we will say the playoffs are weeks 14-17.

Lets first identify games that could spell trouble:

WEEK 14

Oak @ GB: If I were Favre’s coach and was able to maintain a 2 game lead in the division, I’m fighting for home field advantage but as soon as I get a decent lead I’m protecting my QB and honing my running game.

Ind @ Bal: Lets face it, things may change in the next few weeks but 10 points looks like an unsurmountable lead against Baltimore right now. Manning may be hitting the showers early

WEEK 15

GB @ StL: Ditto wk 14 for Favre

NYJ @ NE: This could be over in the first quarter.

Ind @ Oak: The one saving grace is that Manning may need to work on timing with Harrison but more likely these guys will be back in sync after 1 quarter rather than a couple games

WEEK 16

Pit @ StL: It’s a Thursday game and starters like Roethlisberger and Parker may get some rest early for the short week.

Dal @ Car: This may be over early and I can’t even tell you who Dallas’ backup QB is. Maybe they need some snaps?

Miami @ NE: The big question mark, will NE still be undefeated. If so then look for NE to score 100 after Shula’s remarks about spygate. If they have a loss then be nervous about owning Brady or Moss. I am.

WEEK 17

NE @ NYG: It all comes down to the Pats record before this game starts.

Pit @ Bal: The Steelers already have their revenge statement game, this could be a second stringer bowl.

Ok you identified some week spots and potential liabilities. Strike now before the trade deadline to get a guy or two who will win you the championship.

The Opportunities: These are people you can actually get right now that may have a decent week when you need them to.

WEEK 14

Car @ Jac: The Jags will be in the wild card hunt and Garrard should be healthy. Jones Drew is probably already to valuable to pick up.

Mia @ Buf: Marshawn Lynch or maybe even LP Losman will be a good bet this week but you could probably just pick up Buffalo’s defense

NO @ Atl: The Saints are hit or miss but I’d look for them to hit on this week

WEEK 15

Bal @ Mia: Someone has to do well in this game. Either Defense could have a big game as could Kyle Boller….Thats right, I’m a gambler with a crystal ball.

Buf @ Cle: No news flash here but Cleveland’s offense is good and they are going to be fighting for a wildcard from here in. I think this is the most dangerous second tier team in the AFC. Trade for who you can get

Sea @ Car: I have a feeling that this will be a must win for the Seahawks. If they keep throwing, look for Alexander to get on track about here. Mr Alexander can probably be gotten pretty cheaply right now.

WEEK 16

Oak @ Jac: the Jags will be fighting for wildcard home field and JaMarcus Russell will be in there by then. A good day to own a Jag.

Bal @ Sea: The Hawks are huge at home and will need this win. Lots of running the ball after an early lead. I may try to trade for Alexander after I’m done writing here.

NYJ @ Ten: Titans will be in the wild card hunt and the Jets will have a young QB on the road against a tough defense.

TB @ SF: Writing this the day after watching the Niners get spanked on Monday night I have to say that lack of offensive talent is not the primary problem here, coaching is. I have not seen them play a lot this year but the game last night was one of the worst coached games I’ve witnessed in a long time. Given that and the fact that the Bucs will be in the hunt, pick up some Bucs.

WEEK 17

Car @ TB: I feel for Carolina but they have issues right now. Despite Vinny coming home look for big things from the guys in red. Thats right Vinny red, not orange.

Cin @ Mia: Could this be the week that Cincinnati explodes. You probably can’t get any of their offense but if you could.

SD @ Oak: The Chargers will probably need this win. Despite this I would not go after Rivers as I personally believe he has career backup written all over him.

KC @ NYJ: If you can’t find any other QB worth a damn, pick up Brodie Croyle for Herm Edwards’ return to the big apple.

Good luck and starting clearing a place for your trophy.

-Chris

Ok, so for a while it looked like there was a glut of running backs and it was the wide receiver position that needed attention. Well, it looks like the RB position is not going to stop being the force that drives fantasy football anytime soon.

Three trends have converged to make having a quality fantasy back with several backup options essential to success.

The first is not really a trend but rather a norm in the NFL. Backs go down and there are always stars that end up on IR. This year is no exception with the likes of Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister and Cadillac Williams all gone for the year. You have a score of other starters who have had injury problems such as Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson and Brandon Jacobs.

The second trend is the disappointing seasons for so many quality backs. Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney to single some out. There are differing reasons for each one’s problems but in the end they are producing far less than what was projected on opening day.

The third trend, in my opinion is more of a reaction to the first two than a trend in general and that is of the two headed beast at RB. I don’t see a lot of great running backs I see a lot of very mediocre running backs with coaches trying to plug in whoever is running better that week.

I don’t care how a coach frames it or positions it, you run a two back system because neither one of them is good enough to step up at take the starting role. If they are both that good you flip a coin and trade the other.

We seem to be at one of those historic points in the NFL where we are approaching a changing of the guard. Every now and then the slate gets pretty much wiped clean and a new generation of talent comes to the front.

Times like these are magnified when you have a few years without a super-talent back like a Jim Brown, Walter Payton, or Barry Sanders type. Then comes Adrian Peterson and we look and realize just how mediocre even the top backs currently look in historical perspective.

Take a look at three of the top backs from the past couple years. Larry Johnson and Sean Alexander maybe haven’t had the gaping holes of years past to run through. Even though LT has righted the ship for the most part seemed to have trouble when the leads and the schemes designed to open up lanes for them were not there (IE Martyball). Without the advantages these back have looked pretty average at times.

I see Adrian Peterson and I think back to Walter Payton and Barry Sanders playing all those years on sub par teams where the defenses knew they would be getting the ball and they ran for big gains anyway. Does anyone think that Minnesota will be passing the ball up and down the field? Peterson is clearly, all by himself, the top tier of RB in the NFL.

The bottom line is you need to have the best of the that vast third tier of talent beyond all the second tier starters below Peterson. This year proves again that every available space on a roster early in the year needs to contain running backs.

If you picked up your running backs on Tuesdays then you should be winning games in November.

Wow, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak as far as potential goes. A couple notes.

Michael Bennett, (TB-RB) Grab him if you can. A piece of paper and 1 2/3 cups of water makes him an instant starter in Tampa Bay. He has some outstanding games during his time in Minnesota and is worth a shot.

Chris Chambers, (SD-WR) Thats right, Miami has now traded their top receiver for draft picks. Nothing like giving up after six weeks. Granted, I’m not a fan. I think he is in the TO mold of top physical gifts but hands of stone minus the hype.

I predict that half the people will think this makes him a better fantasy prospect and half the people will think that makes him a worse prospect. If you have him, try and find one of the former group and TRADE HIM NOW. Can you tell which camp I’m in.

Earnest Graham, (TB-RB) One game does not end a career but he had his chance and they picked up Bennett. This ship may have sailed

PLAYERS ON A BYE FOR WEEK 7

I know you have your bye house in order. Look for opportunities with owners who have these players and no good replacement. If you don’t need them this week it’s a good time to trade for any of these players as well.

Carolina

S. Smith, (Car-WR)
V. Testaverde, (Car-QB)
D. Carr, (Car-QB)
D. Foster, (Car-RB)
D. Williams, (Car-RB)
J. King, (Car-TE)
D. Carter, (Car-WR)
K. Colbert, (Car-WR)

Cleveland

D. Anderson, (Cle-QB)
B. Edwards, (Cle-WR)
J. Lewis, (Cle-RB)
K. Winslow, (Cle-TE)
J. Jurevicius, (Cle-WR)
J. Wright, (Cle-RB)
J. Harrison, (Cle-RB)
T. Carter, (Cle-WR)

Green Bay

B. Favre, (GB-QB)
G. Jennings, (GB-WR)
D. Driver, (GB-WR)
D. Wynn, (GB-RB)
B. Jackson, (GB-RB)
V. Morency, (GB-RB)
J. Jones, (GB-WR)
D. Lee, (GB-TE)
B. Franks, (GB-TE)

San Diego

L. Tomlinson, (SD-RB)
P. Rivers, (SD-QB)
A. Gates, (SD-TE)
V. Jackson, (SD-WR)
C. Chambers, (SD-WR)
M. Turner, (SD-RB)
C. Davis, (SD-WR)

Wednesday: Make your trade offers today.

Review: Your trade strategy should revolve around multi-player trades for two reasons:

1) With bye week at hand you need to clear some space on your bench or else you will end up dropping a guy you would rather keep or accept a zero on a slot where your starter is on a bye. Its better to trade and get some value now than drop them and get nothing later.

2) Chances are you you have a couple guys at RB and a couple guys at WR on your bench that could break out and then again could be a bust. An example in this category might be rookie Calvin Johnson for Detroit. Perhaps you have some under performing veterans like Fred Taylor or dark horses hampered by injury like Vernand Morency. Its better to bundle these guys and upgrade one position than to keep them all and never win a game for having them.

What you want to do is find their needs and give perceived value. Print out a roster grid of your league and note the following in different colors:

1) Highlight all players with a bye
2) Highlight injured players
3) Highlight good players coming off a poor performance or having a slow start.
4) Highlight average players on your own roster coming off a big week

Ones and two’s identify needs and therefore opportunities for a trade. Threes identify players to trade for and fours players to trade. You are basically identifying an ideal market and then buying low and selling high.

Here are some players that fall into category three that would be worth trading for for their upside later in the year:

Alexander, Shaun RB SEA

Johnson, Larry RB KC

Johnson, Rudi RB CIN

Ward, Hines WR PIT

Harrison, Marvin WR IND

Walker, Javon WR DEN

Moss, Santana WR WAS

-Chris

It’s waiver wire day:

Upcoming Byes: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Some good Pickups:

Davenport, Najeh RB PIT
Graham, Earnest RB TB
Young, Selvin RB DEN
Taylor, Chester RB MIN

Warner, Kurt QB ARI

NO ROOKIE QBs RULE

I know there are some youngsters out there but my personal rule is to NEVER go with a young QB

Both of these are calls from the gut:

Stallworth, Donte’ WR NE
Williams, Roydell WR TEN

Just after the first bye week its time to change the strategy up just a bit. Its a hard time to find diamonds in the rough and there is more competition now that people have to fill vacancies created by bye weeks.

Week 5 Byes: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Cincinnati

You still want to search the waiver wire but it should be for bargains, not out of desperation, right? You have a bye week plan for the next few weeks right? If not, get that done now!

If you have taken care of business, then you probably have a bench full of guys that could break out of could bust. You don’t want to drop them but someone will have to go eventually during the bye weeks so now is the time to trade.

Find the guys on your bench that are hot enough to get noticed but not hot enough to start. Offer them in trades to guys desperate because they did not plan for the bye and now with the slew of injuries…. opportunity

A couple examples from one of my benches: Greg Jennings WR GB and Earnest Graham RB TB. They guys are tradeable and in combination may allow you to upgrade at a key position.

Look at your waiver wire, especially if you are 1-3 in line but spend your real time on Tuesday Trade offers.

Just in case you do need to fill a bye hole this week here are a couple guys to look at:

Quarterbacks:

Anderson, Derek QB CLE: Good luck getting now.

Campbell, Jason QB WAS: Great match up this week with Detroit

Carr, David QB CAR: This is a decent gamble. I know he has looked like crap but if Delhomme goes under the knife this may become his team and he had some very good fantasy games in Houston when he had some time to throw.

Brees, Drew QB NO: The stock can only go up from here. He is better than this, get him now.

Morris, Sammy RB NE: He has certainly capitalized on his part time role

Fargas, Justin RB OAK: Maybe not

Pittman, Michael RB TB: Will be the yardage and receiving head of the monster

Graham, Earnest RB TB: Will be the goal line touchdown scoring head.

Crayton, Patrick WR DAL: Apparently he learned how to catch this week. Don’t count on it every week. If I picked this guy up it would be to turn around and trade him on his hype

Porter, Jerry WR OAK: Seems like every year there is a time when it looks like Porter has arrived and then it and he go away. See Crayton above

Davis, Andre WR HOU: Taking advantage of the PT

Williams, Roydell WR TEN: I think he will become Young’s guy if he isn’t already

Northcutt, Dennis WR JAC: Showed some promise if they can get him the ball

-Chris